Coffee Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

In the Colombian Milds category, the highest-cost reporting segment, coffee prices continued easing through H1 2026 after a historically volatile 2025. The Colombian Milds average fell from USD 3.7159/LB in Q1 2026 to USD 3.40/LB in Q2, a decline of about 8.5%. Globally, the average fell from USD 3.1622/LB in Q1 2026 to USD 2.9025/LB in Q2, a decline of about 8.2%, as a returning Brazilian rainy season and a recovering Vietnamese harvest outweighed still-thin certified exchange stocks. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 2.70-3.00/LB is expected, with a record Brazilian crop and Vietnamese Robusta recovery continuing to ease the market from 2025's historic highs.

Green coffee is the unroasted bean harvested from Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora (Robusta) plants, traded internationally through benchmark futures exchanges and priced by origin-quality category. Roaster and instant-coffee manufacturing demand accounts for the largest share of global consumption, with foodservice and packaged beverage applications making up most of the remaining major uses. Brazilian and Vietnamese weather and crop conditions, exchange-certified stock levels, currency movements in producing countries, and trade policy affecting import flows are the drivers that move price most consistently.

Coffee Price Forecast for 2026

The supply-demand balance for coffee through the remainder of 2026 leans toward continued softening as a record Brazilian 2026/27 harvest and a recovering Vietnamese Robusta crop add meaningful new supply after 2025's historically tight conditions. Certified exchange stocks remain well below their five-year average, which should limit how far prices fall, while steady global roaster demand continues to provide a floor beneath the market.

The primary upside risk is adverse Brazilian weather during the critical flowering period combined with continued thin certified stocks, which would push prices above the forecast range. The primary downside risk is a faster-than-expected build in Brazilian and Vietnamese supply combined with softer demand, which would pull prices back below the forecast.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Coffee Prices Q2 2026:

• Colombian Milds: USD 3.40/LB
• Other Milds: USD 3.28/LB
• Brazilian Naturals: USD 3.15/LB
• Robusta: USD 1.78/LB

Coffee Prices in Colombian Milds

Colombian Milds averaged USD 3.40/LB in Q2 2026, down about 8.5% from USD 3.7159/LB in Q1 2026, the highest-priced category among the four tracked groups. A confirmed record Brazilian harvest and easing global tightness drove the continued decline.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q2 2026 in Colombian Milds?

Confirmation of a record Brazilian 2026/27 harvest continued easing global supply concerns through the quarter. Certified exchange stocks began recovering modestly from their late-2025 lows. Steady roaster demand limited the pace of the decline despite the improving supply outlook.

Coffee Prices in Other Milds

Other Milds averaged USD 3.28/LB in Q2 2026, down about 8.1% from USD 3.57/LB in Q1 2026, tracking the Colombian benchmark closely through the quarter.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q2 2026 in Other Milds?

Broader washed-Arabica origins tracked the Colombian benchmark's decline closely. Improving Brazilian supply expectations eased regional sourcing pressure. Roaster demand remained steady, moderating the pace of the decline.

Coffee Prices in Brazilian Naturals

Brazilian Naturals averaged USD 3.15/LB in Q2 2026, down about 8.4% from USD 3.4377/LB in Q1 2026. A confirmed record incoming harvest kept this category on its steady downward path.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q2 2026 in Brazilian Naturals?

A record 2026/27 Brazilian harvest, revised sharply higher on improved rainfall, continued moving toward market through the quarter. Brazilian real movements added modest additional pressure on dollar-denominated pricing. Farmer selling activity picked up as harvest volumes became more certain.

Coffee Prices in Robusta

Robusta averaged USD 1.78/LB in Q2 2026, down about 7.5% from USD 1.9252/LB in Q1 2026, the lowest-priced category among the four tracked groups. Continued Vietnamese crop recovery pressured pricing lower.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q2 2026 in Robusta?

Vietnam's recovering harvest continued adding supply after the prior year's drought-reduced crop. Steady instant-coffee and blending demand limited the pace of the decline. The historically wide gap to Arabica pricing began narrowing modestly as both categories moved lower.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Coffee Prices Q1 2026:

• Colombian Milds: USD 3.7159/LB
• Other Milds: USD 3.57/LB
• Brazilian Naturals: USD 3.4377/LB
• Robusta: USD 1.9252/LB

Coffee Prices in Colombian Milds

Colombian Milds averaged USD 3.7159/LB in Q1 2026, down about 3.5% from Q4 2025, as returning Brazilian rainfall eased supply concerns entering the year, including a sharp late-month drop tied to a Minas Gerais rain event.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q1 2026 in Colombian Milds?

Rainfall returned to Brazil's key growing regions entering the year, easing concerns built up during the prior autumn's dry spell. A specific rain event late in the quarter triggered a sharp multi-day price drop as flowering-period stress fears eased. Certified exchange stocks remained near a multi-year low, limiting the scale of the decline.

Coffee Prices in Other Milds

Other Milds averaged USD 3.57/LB in Q1 2026, down about 4.8% from Q4 2025, tracking the broader Arabica easing trend entering the year.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q1 2026 in Other Milds?

Improving Brazilian weather conditions eased broader Arabica market sentiment entering the year. Certified stock tightness continued to provide underlying support. Roaster demand held steady through the quarter.

Coffee Prices in Brazilian Naturals

Brazilian Naturals averaged USD 3.4377/LB in Q1 2026, down about 4.5% from Q4 2025, as early signs of a record incoming harvest began easing prices entering the year.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q1 2026 in Brazilian Naturals?

Early crop estimates pointed toward a substantially larger 2026/27 Brazilian harvest as rainfall recovered. Brazilian real appreciation earlier in the cycle had reduced farmer selling pressure, but improving crop prospects began outweighing that support. Certified stock tightness limited the pace of the decline.

Coffee Prices in Robusta

Robusta averaged USD 1.9252/LB in Q1 2026, down about 10.5% from Q4 2025, as a recovering Vietnamese harvest began adding meaningful new supply entering the year.

Why did the price of Coffee change in Q1 2026 in Robusta?

Vietnam's 2025/26 harvest volumes came in well above the prior drought-affected year, adding supply entering the year. Instant-coffee and blending demand stayed steady but could not offset the improved supply picture. The Arabica-Robusta spread remained historically wide despite the decline.

Quarterly Coffee Price Trends

Global coffee prices swung through a historically volatile 2025 before easing steadily through H1 2026. The average opened near USD 3.5625/LB in Q1 2025 near multi-decade highs on Brazilian supply fears, eased to USD 3.30/LB in Q2, then jumped to USD 3.475/LB in Q3 as new US tariffs on Brazilian coffee disrupted trade flows, before easing to USD 3.3375/LB in Q4 2025 as the tariffs were fully exempted. The average then fell to USD 3.1622/LB in Q1 2026 and USD 2.9025/LB in Q2 2026, a net decline of about 18.5% across the six-quarter window, as a record Brazilian harvest and recovering Vietnamese crop added substantial new supply.

What was Coffee Price in 2025?

Coffee prices swung through a historically volatile year in 2025, opening near multi-decade highs on Brazilian supply fears before a US tariff shock on Brazilian imports triggered a sharp third-quarter spike, followed by an easing once the tariffs were fully exempted late in the year. The global average opened near USD 3.5625/LB in Q1 2025 and closed near USD 3.3375/LB by Q4, a full-year decline of about 6.3%, masking a sharp mid-year dip, a tariff-driven third-quarter spike, and a fourth-quarter easing. Brazilian weather fears, a major US tariff policy shift on Brazilian coffee, and historically thin certified exchange stocks were the primary forces that defined the year.

Coffee Prices in Colombian Milds in 2025

Colombian Milds fell from about USD 4.10/LB in Q1 2025 to USD 3.85/LB by Q4, a decline of roughly 6.1%, with a sharp third-quarter spike to USD 4.00/LB as new US tariffs on Brazilian coffee disrupted broader Arabica trade flows before easing into year-end.

Coffee Prices in Other Milds in 2025

Other Milds fell from about USD 4.00/LB in Q1 2025 to USD 3.75/LB by Q4, a decline of roughly 6.3%, tracking the Colombian benchmark's volatile path through the tariff-driven third-quarter spike and subsequent easing.

Coffee Prices in Brazilian Naturals in 2025

Brazilian Naturals fell from about USD 3.85/LB in Q1 2025 to USD 3.60/LB by Q4, a decline of roughly 6.5%. US tariffs on Brazilian coffee, effective from August 2025, cut Brazilian import volumes into the United States sharply before a full exemption was granted in November, easing pressure into year-end.

Coffee Prices in Robusta in 2025

Robusta fell from about USD 2.30/LB in Q1 2025 to USD 2.15/LB by Q4, a decline of roughly 6.5%, the lowest-priced category throughout the year, as steady instant-coffee demand kept the category firmer than the underlying Vietnamese crop recovery might otherwise have suggested.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Coffee Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks coffee prices continuously across every major origin-quality category. The team traces causation through Brazilian and Vietnamese weather and crop cycles, certified exchange stock levels, currency movements in producing countries, and trade policy shifts affecting import flows. Forecasts draw on crop production estimates, exchange stock data, and trade flow information across all reporting categories. Contact Expert Market Research today for coffee pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.