Nickel Pig Iron Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Global Nickel Pig Iron prices jumped 13.4% in Q2 2026 to USD 1,501.50/MT from USD 1,324.00/MT in Q1, the sharpest quarterly gain of any commodity Expert Market Research tracks in the ferrous and base metals space. Chinese prices, the largest single market by volume, climbed to USD 1,520.00/MT, while Indonesian producer-benchmark prices rose to USD 1,380.00/MT, the lowest of the four regions but still up 14.0% for the quarter. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 1,400.00-1,600.00/MT is expected, with a genuine supply-side constraint, rather than just higher ore costs, likely to keep this market firm.

Nickel Pig Iron, universally abbreviated NPI, is a lower-purity ferronickel alloy, typically carrying 10 to 15 percent nickel content, smelted directly from nickel laterite ore using a rotary kiln-electric furnace process pioneered in China and now dominated by Indonesian output. It serves as the primary nickel feedstock for stainless steel production, trading at a persistent discount to the LME-deliverable Class 1 refined nickel benchmark used in batteries and superalloys. Indonesian ore production policy and smelter feed costs, the pace at which furnace capacity is directed toward NPI versus higher-value nickel matte for battery precursor production, and Chinese and broader Asian stainless steel mill utilization are what move prices here.

Nickel Pig Iron Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Nickel Pig Iron through H2 2026 stays firm, and for a reason distinct from the pure ore-cost story affecting refined nickel. Indonesian furnace operators have been shifting capacity away from NPI and toward higher-payable nickel matte destined for battery precursor production, cutting estimated NPI output by roughly 10% year-on-year in the opening months of 2026. That supply-side reallocation should persist even if Indonesian ore quotas are eventually loosened, keeping NPI firmer for longer than the broader nickel complex.

The main upside risk is a further shift of Indonesian furnace capacity toward nickel matte, which would tighten NPI-specific supply even if overall Indonesian ore output rises. The main downside risk is a slowdown in Chinese stainless steel demand, which would reduce the pull on NPI regardless of how tight upstream supply becomes.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Nickel Pig Iron Prices Q2 2026:

• China: USD 1,520.00/MT
• Indonesia: USD 1,380.00/MT
• Japan: USD 1,590.00/MT
• India: USD 1,560.00/MT

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in China

Chinese Nickel Pig Iron prices averaged USD 1,520.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 13.4% from USD 1,340.00/MT in Q1, as the largest single consuming market absorbed the full force of tightening Indonesian ore-based feedstock costs.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q2 2026 in China?

Rising Chinese stainless mill utilization added fresh demand-side pressure just as Indonesian furnace operators diverted capacity toward higher-payable nickel matte, cutting estimated NPI output by roughly 10% year-on-year in the opening months of the year. That combination of firmer demand and constrained supply drove the sharpest quarterly move covered in this report.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Indonesia

Indonesian producer-benchmark prices averaged USD 1,380.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 14.0% from USD 1,210.00/MT in Q1, the lowest absolute level of the four regions but the largest percentage gain, as domestic ore premiums fed directly into export offers.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q2 2026 in Indonesia?

Indonesian ore premiums linked to the government's flat-to-down 2026 production target fed straight through into NPI smelter costs, and periodic disruptions, including limonite shortages and a tailings dam incident curbing intermediate output at one major site, added further supply-side pressure.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Japan

Japanese import prices averaged USD 1,590.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 12.8% from USD 1,410.00/MT in Q1, tracking the broader Asian tightening even as the pace of gain moderated slightly against the sharper Indonesian move.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

Japanese stainless producers, dependent on imported NPI, faced the same tightening Indonesian supply picture as every other importing market, though somewhat deeper existing inventory buffers took some of the edge off the price move compared with China.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in India

Indian import prices averaged USD 1,560.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 13.0% from USD 1,380.00/MT in Q1, as the country's growing stainless steel sector competed for increasingly scarce NPI cargo.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q2 2026 in India?

India's expanding stainless steel capacity kept import demand firm, and with Indonesian cargo increasingly directed toward domestic and Chinese buyers first, Indian mills found themselves competing harder for the tonnage that remained available.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Nickel Pig Iron Prices Q1 2026:

• China: USD 1,340.00/MT
• Indonesia: USD 1,210.00/MT
• Japan: USD 1,410.00/MT
• India: USD 1,380.00/MT

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in China

Chinese prices rose 4.7% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,340.00/MT from USD 1,280.00/MT in Q4 2025, a firm but comparatively modest gain ahead of the much sharper move that followed in Q2.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q1 2026 in China?

Indonesia's announced 2026 ore production target of 250 to 260 million tonnes, representing flat-to-down supply against 2025, began reshaping smelter cost expectations well before the sharper physical tightening showed up in Q2.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Indonesia

Indonesian benchmark prices rose 4.3% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,210.00/MT from USD 1,160.00/MT in Q4 2025, as early signs of tighter 2026 ore policy began filtering through to smelter costs.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q1 2026 in Indonesia?

Indonesian ore premiums had already started climbing as the market absorbed the government's production discipline commitment, though the sharpest feed-through to NPI-specific pricing was still to come.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Japan

Japanese import prices rose 4.4% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,410.00/MT from USD 1,350.00/MT in Q4 2025, broadly in line with the wider Asian nickel complex.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q1 2026 in Japan?

Steady stainless steel demand across the region kept import buyers active, while the broader nickel complex firmed on growing confidence in Indonesian supply discipline.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in India

Indian import prices rose 4.5% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,380.00/MT from USD 1,320.00/MT in Q4 2025, supported by steadily growing domestic stainless steel output.

Why did the price of Nickel Pig Iron change in Q1 2026 in India?

Domestic stainless steel producers continued ramping capacity, keeping NPI import demand on a firm upward path even before Indonesian supply constraints intensified further into Q2.

Quarterly Nickel Pig Iron Price Trends

Global Nickel Pig Iron prices dipped modestly in Q2 2025 before climbing steadily through the following three quarters, then accelerated sharply in Q2 2026 as Indonesian furnace capacity shifted toward higher-value nickel matte production, tightening NPI-specific supply even as the broader ore market absorbed the government's production discipline commitment.

What was Nickel Pig Iron Price in 2025?

Nickel Pig Iron firmed steadily across every market covered in this report through 2025, tracking the gradual improvement in the broader nickel complex as Chinese stainless mill utilization recovered, before the sharper acceleration tied to Indonesia's tightening ore policy took hold heading into 2026.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices firmed from about USD 1,180.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,280.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 8.5%, the strongest of the four regions as recovering stainless mill utilization steadily absorbed available NPI supply.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Indonesia in 2025

Indonesian benchmark prices firmed from about USD 1,080.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,160.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 7.4%, the smallest annual gain among the four regions as this remains the lowest-cost point in the value chain.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in Japan in 2025

Japanese import prices firmed from about USD 1,250.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,350.00/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 8.0%, tracking the broader recovery in Asian stainless steel demand.

Nickel Pig Iron Prices in India in 2025

Indian import prices firmed from about USD 1,220.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,320.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 8.2%, as steadily expanding domestic stainless steel capacity kept import demand on a consistent upward path.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Nickel Pig Iron Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Nickel Pig Iron prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining Indonesian furnace allocation data, ore policy developments, and Chinese and broader Asian stainless steel demand signals into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the supply-side dynamics covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this key stainless steel feedstock is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.