Urea Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Urea provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Urea finds its extensive usage in fertilizers as a source of nitrogen and is an important raw material for the chemical industry and several other products. On a regional consumption basis, Asia Pacific leads the Urea production, followed by North America. Rising consumption of Nitrogen fertilizers in nations like China and India is boosting the demand for Urea in the Asia Pacific region. During Q1 2025, world urea price trends varied regionally based on seasonal farm demand and supply disruptions. There was a price increase in North America due to weather-induced production reductions, while Asia-Pacific witnessed initial softness followed by recovery as spring restocking picked up. The quarter overall was characterised by supply constraints and volatile patterns of demand.

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The consistently increasing demand for fertilisers from the agriculture industry is driving the demand for Urea, which is further propelling its requirement around the globe. Apart from agriculture, Urea is utilised in an array of applications, including plastics, resins, adhesives, explosives, automobile systems, drugs, and other commercial products.

Urea Price Forecast

Prices of urea were highly volatile in the global markets due to regional factors, supply chain restrictions, and seasonal agricultural demand. These problems were exacerbated in early 2024 by high purchasing momentum from prominent importing countries such as India and Brazil, and the logistical issues in China caused by plant shutdowns and port delays. By mid-2024, though, worldwide prices started weakening as inventories stabilised following planting seasons. By the end of 2024, north America prices experienced a downward shift because of muted domestic demand. In contrast, in Brazil, the El Niño conditions induced earlier fertiliser buying, underpinning higher levels. Looking forward to 2025, although urea prices can see short-term volatility influenced by planting cycles and geopolitical events, the general trend will continue to be stable with gentle upward pressure fueled by a possible recovery in demand within the fertiliser industry.

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Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

In 2024, international urea markets and supply chains were seriously disrupted by sharply declining exports from China. China suspended almost 90% of its urea exports as the country's government focused on stabilizing the domestic market by limiting exports to maintain domestic prices. This sudden cutoff of supplies by one of the largest exporters in the world resulted in lower availability in the global market outlook and caused price fluctuations, especially in areas such as South Asia and Latin America.

In Europe, the "Dunkelflaute" period of low solar and wind electricity generation increased the fear of soaring electricity expenses, which could be channelled to higher production costs and constricted supply. Geopolitical tensions further contributed to market volatility. The European Commission's suggestion to impose tariffs on Russian and Belarusian nitrogen-based fertilisers not only increased political tensions but also upset energy supply and transport dynamics, increasing pressure on supply chains. In the Asia-Pacific, especially India, as of December 2024 government-issued tender for up to 1.5 million tons of urea triggered steep price rises, a testament to both strong demand and squeezed delivery schedules. As opposed to this, North America registered a decline in prices for urea in November 2024, mainly due to high inventories and weak domestic demand around the holiday season.

Feedstock Analysis

Ammonia, the key feedstock for urea production, is primarily synthesised through the Haber-Bosch process, which combines nitrogen from the air with hydrogen derived via steam methane reforming of natural gas. This very energy-demanding process uses approximately 3–5% of the world's natural gas and emits 1–2% of global CO₂ emissions. Significantly, the CO₂ produced in ammonia synthesis is captured and used efficiently in the process of urea production. Urea is manufactured by reacting the CO₂ with ammonia under high-pressure and high-temperature conditions to produce ammonium carbamate, which then dehydrates to form urea. Since natural gas is a raw material of necessity, its price and availability have a substantial impact on the cost of producing ammonia and, consequently, urea.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Urea

Broader macroeconomic factors affecting urea price forecast suggests that the world urea market is anticipated to reach 270 million tons in 2032, translating into long-term expansion based on farm demand and industrial uses. Through early April 2025, the world urea market held firm due to subdued demand in major regions. The market was stable in the face of muted demand, specifically in North America, where poor weather conditions had prevented planting activities, and hence, procurement was tame despite proper inventory positions. Regions such as South America, on the other hand, saw price increases due to disrupted supplies, with Iran being one such supplier that cut down urea production and affected major export destinations like Brazil and Turkey. These geographical differences point to the intricate interactions affecting the urea market, such as seasonal farm demand, geopolitical tensions, and logistical issues.

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