Carnaroli White Rice Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2035

Carnaroli White Rice prices in the United States, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 1.4% in Q3 2026 to USD 2,110/MT from USD 2,080/MT in Q2, as Carnaroli paddy rose EUR 20 to about EUR 556 to 645 per tonne at Vercelli in July and paddy prices turned higher across varieties while milled Arborio stayed unchanged at EUR 1,260 to 1,440 per tonne. Italy prices rose 1.6% to USD 1,860/MT, while Spain prices rose 1.3% to USD 1,520/MT. Globally, the average rose from USD 1,843/MT in Q2 to USD 1,871/MT in Q3, a 1.5% gain, following a decline of 3.3% in Q2. For H2 2026, this market is expected to stay stable to slightly firm, with paddy prices turning higher from levels below producers' cost and premium demand for risotto rice supporting prices while a large crop caps gains.

Carnaroli White Rice is milled and polished white rice from the Carnaroli variety, an Italian long, large-grained rice with high amylose content that holds its shape and absorbs flavors, known as the King of Risotto. It is sold packed for retail and foodservice for risotto, rice salads, and fine dining dishes, and used in premium prepared meals. Because it is milled from Carnaroli paddy, this market follows paddy quotations in Vercelli, Novara, and Mortara, and milling, energy, and packaging costs. Carnaroli paddy quotations and harvest size, retail and fine dining demand, and milling and packaging costs are what drive prices in this market.

Carnaroli White Rice Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Carnaroli White Rice through the end of 2026 is stable to slightly firm. Paddy prices have turned higher from levels well below producers' cost, stocks remain at highs for the period, and premium demand for risotto rice supports prices. Buyers are expected to keep procurement plans flexible, tracking feedstock and freight conditions closely through the fourth quarter.

The main upside risk is a smaller harvest or stronger export demand. The main downside risk is a larger crop and weaker retail demand. Contract negotiations for the coming months are likely to hinge on how feedstock costs and demand evolve. Buyers are expected to keep procurement plans flexible, tracking feedstock and freight conditions closely through the fourth quarter.

For the Quarter Ending September 2026

Carnaroli White Rice Prices Q3 2026:

• Italy: USD 1,860/MT
• Germany: USD 1,960/MT
• United States: USD 2,110/MT
• Spain: USD 1,520/MT

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Italy

Italy Carnaroli White Rice prices averaged USD 1,860/MT in Q3 2026, up 1.6% from USD 1,830/MT in Q2, as Carnaroli paddy rose in July, lifting milled prices slightly while Arborio milled stayed flat. Buyers continued to absorb the higher offers, with procurement activity staying steady through September and inventories remaining broadly balanced across the supply chain.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q3 2026 in Italy?

Carnaroli paddy at Vercelli rose to about EUR 556 to 645 per tonne in early July, up EUR 20, while the paddy market turned higher across varieties in July with stocks still at highs for the period, which lifted milled Carnaroli slightly, as Arborio milled rice at Bologna held at EUR 1,260 to 1,440 per tonne. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Germany

Germany Carnaroli White Rice prices averaged USD 1,960/MT in Q3 2026, up 1.6% from USD 1,930/MT in Q2, as retail demand for premium risotto rice supported prices. Converters and distributors kept order books active through the quarter, accepting the firmer quotations rather than delaying purchases into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q3 2026 in Germany?

German importers paid slightly more as Italian paddy prices turned higher and retail demand for premium risotto rice stayed steady. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in United States

United States Carnaroli White Rice prices averaged USD 2,110/MT in Q3 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 1.4% from USD 2,080/MT in Q2, as premium positioning and import costs lifted prices. Suppliers held offers firm while spot availability stayed limited, which kept sentiment constructive heading into the final quarter of the year.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q3 2026 in United States?

US importers paid slightly more as Italian prices rose and demand for premium risotto rice stayed steady. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Spain

Spain Carnaroli White Rice prices averaged USD 1,520/MT in Q3 2026, the lowest of the four regions, up 1.3% from USD 1,500/MT in Q2, as local supply and Italian competition kept prices the lowest. Contract negotiations for the fourth quarter opened with sellers seeking further increases, reflecting the tighter cost structure that producers faced through the period.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q3 2026 in Spain?

Spanish milled prices edged higher with Italian values, though ample local supply kept this the most affordable market. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Carnaroli White Rice Prices Q2 2026:

• Italy: USD 1,830/MT
• Germany: USD 1,930/MT
• United States: USD 2,080/MT
• Spain: USD 1,500/MT

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Italy

Italy prices eased 3.7% in Q2 2026 to USD 1,830/MT from USD 1,900/MT in Q1, within the middle of the range tracked here, as low paddy costs held milled prices near lows. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with buyers pushing back and sellers conceding some ground through June.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q2 2026 in Italy?

In Q2, prices eased as paddy prices stayed low after a large crop and sales slowed. Italian prices stayed near lows as paddy prices stayed low after a large crop. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Germany

Germany prices eased 3.5% in Q2 2026 to USD 1,930/MT from USD 2,000/MT in Q1, within the middle of the range tracked here, as steady demand held prices near lows. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with buyers pushing back and sellers conceding some ground through June. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

In Q2, prices eased as paddy prices stayed low after a large crop and sales slowed. German prices held near lows on steady demand. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in United States

United States prices eased 3.3% in Q2 2026 to USD 2,080/MT from USD 2,150/MT in Q1, the highest of any region tracked here, as steady demand held prices near lows. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with buyers pushing back and sellers conceding some ground through June. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q2 2026 in United States?

In Q2, prices eased as paddy prices stayed low after a large crop and sales slowed. US prices held near lows on steady demand. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Spain

Spain prices eased 2.6% in Q2 2026 to USD 1,500/MT from USD 1,540/MT in Q1, the lowest of the four regions, as ample supply held prices near lows. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with buyers pushing back and sellers conceding some ground through June. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Why did the price of Carnaroli White Rice change in Q2 2026 in Spain?

In Q2, prices eased as paddy prices stayed low after a large crop and sales slowed. Spanish prices stayed near lows on ample supply. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Quarterly Carnaroli White Rice Price Trends

Global Carnaroli White Rice prices fell steadily through 2025 and the first half of 2026 as large Italian supply and weak paddy prices pulled quotations down from their 2024 highs, then edged up in Q3 as paddy prices turned higher across the regions tracked in this report. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

What was Carnaroli White Rice Price in 2025?

Carnaroli White Rice eased across the markets covered in this report through 2025, tracking large supply and weak paddy prices, with the strongest annual move recorded in Spain before the softer Q1 2026 and the Q3 2026 developments that followed. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Italy in 2025

Italy prices eased from about USD 2,150/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,950/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 9.3%, the smallest annual move of the four regions. A steady fall in quotations from record highs defined pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked large supply and weak paddy prices closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the softer Q1 2026 that followed.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Germany in 2025

Germany prices eased from about USD 2,250/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,050/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 8.9%. A steady fall in quotations from record highs defined pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked large supply and weak paddy prices closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the softer Q1 2026 that followed.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in United States in 2025

United States prices eased from about USD 2,400/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,200/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 8.3%. A steady fall in quotations from record highs defined pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked large supply and weak paddy prices closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the softer Q1 2026 that followed.

Carnaroli White Rice Prices in Spain in 2025

Spain prices eased from about USD 1,700/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,570/MT by Q4, a decline of roughly 7.6%, the strongest annual move of the four regions. A steady fall in quotations from record highs defined pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked large supply and weak paddy prices closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the softer Q1 2026 that followed.

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Expert Market Research tracks Carnaroli White Rice prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining paddy and milled price data, retail and fine dining demand signals, and milling and packaging cost trends into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the trends covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this premium risotto rice is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.