Aluminum Scrap Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

H1 2026 was a firming period for aluminum scrap. India, the highest-cost region in this report, moved from near USD 2,394/MT in Q1 to about USD 2,820.95/MT in Q2, a just above 17.8% gain. The global average followed a similar path, up just under 10.2% from close to USD 2,374.75/MT to roughly USD 2,616.14/MT. Looking ahead, H2 2026 should land near roughly 2,550 - 2,850 globally.

Aluminum Scrap refers to recyclable aluminum bearing material recovered from end of life vehicles, used beverage cans, construction demolition, and industrial process offcuts, sorted and processed for remelting into secondary ingot and billet. Commercial grades range from clean extrusion offcuts and used beverage can (UBC) bales to mixed shredded automotive scrap and dross. The largest pull comes from secondary aluminum smelters supplying automotive, packaging, and construction sectors, where remelting scrap consumes a fraction of the energy required for primary production, outperforming primary metal on cost and carbon footprint for non critical applications. Circular economy mandates in the automotive and construction sectors, EV battery housing specifications, and electronics grade alloy demand add further pull. Scrap generation rates, environmental processing regulation, and import policy all feed into the price, and shifts in any one of these three can move a regional market well before the underlying scrap generation cycle itself changes.

Aluminum Scrap Price Forecast for 2026

Supply looks set to stay tight for aluminum scrap heading into H2 2026, and it is not down to any one thing. Regulatory restrictions in Shandong and production cuts at smaller Chinese recyclers are part of it, the UAE export ban and higher EU tariffs add to it, and secondary smelter demand keeps expanding on top of all that, leaving buyers in every tracked market competing harder for a shrinking pool of clean feedstock.

The main upside risk is further tightening of low grade import restrictions in China or additional export curbs in key origin markets, compressing available merchant scrap supply further below secondary smelter requirements. The main downside risk is a pickup in formal scrap collection and processing capacity, particularly in India and China, or softer than expected automotive and packaging demand easing buying urgency across the four tracked markets simultaneously.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Aluminum Scrap Prices Q2 2026:

• India: USD 2,820.95/MT
• United States: USD 2,650/MT
• China: USD 2,753.61/MT
• Germany: USD 2,240/MT

Aluminum Scrap Prices in India

India aluminum scrap prices climbed to near USD 2,820.95/MT in this quarter, a gain of close to 17.8% from about USD 2,394/MT the quarter before.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q2 2026 in India?

It is worth separating out the pieces here, since more than one was at work. Restocking cycles among secondary smelters clustered around Jamnagar and Chennai ramped up through the quarter. Layered onto this, supply stayed behind demand throughout, a function of domestic scrap collection remaining constrained by uneven networks. Taken as a whole, India ended up past both China and the United States as the highest cost market this quarter, on the strength of just how sharp that gain turned out to be.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in the United States

In the United States, aluminum scrap averaged roughly USD 2,650/MT this quarter, up just under 5.1% on the just above USD 2,522/MT recorded previously.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

The explanation is less tidy than a single cause; several things overlapped. Strong inbound flows continued largely because aluminum scrap stayed exempt from the import tariffs applied to primary and semi-manufactured products. Compounding the picture, traditional Mexican and Canadian supply got a boost too, from European suppliers, particularly out of Germany and Spain. Combined, these forces meant that steady procurement from beverage can sheet converters in the Southeast held throughout the quarter.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in China

Aluminum Scrap prices in China moved up to near USD 2,753.61/MT, a close to 13.5% increase from the prior quarter's about USD 2,427/MT.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q2 2026 in China?

Unpacking this a little, the move owes itself to more than one factor. Automotive and electronics alloy orders kept coming in, and secondary smelters across Guangdong and Shandong accelerated furnace operations to keep pace. At the same time, available merchant supply in coastal trading hubs tightened as newly commissioned recycling capacity came online. The net effect of all this was that volume concentrated among larger recyclers, since stricter environmental inspections curtailed throughput at smaller, non compliant processors.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in Germany

Germany saw aluminum scrap prices rise just under 3.9% quarter on quarter, reaching roughly USD 2,240/MT versus just above USD 2,156/MT previously.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

This did not come down to one thing; a few pressures built at once. Recycled alloy purchases kept climbing among automotive OEMs in Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, driven by CBAM compliance timelines they could not postpone. Adding to that, Germany stayed the calmest of the four tracked regions, helped by European supply that remained tighter than what Asian markets were seeing. Once these lined up, a steady floor sat beneath the gain throughout, provided by structural demand from lightweighting programs.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Aluminum Scrap Prices Q1 2026:

• India: USD 2,394/MT
• United States: USD 2,522/MT
• China: USD 2,427/MT
• Germany: USD 2,156/MT

Aluminum Scrap Prices in India

Prices firmed in India to near USD 2,394/MT, a close to 5.0% gain over the about USD 2,280/MT average from the previous quarter.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q1 2026 in India?

What mainly explains the move is not one thing but a few working together. Buying picked up through the quarter, lifted by restocking cycles among secondary smelters clustered around Jamnagar and Chennai. Alongside this, imports supported the market too, though logistical delays and currency fluctuations took some of the edge off. When these pieces came together, incremental demand kept building on the back of rising infrastructure and automotive activity.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in the United States

The United States's aluminum scrap market averaged roughly USD 2,522/MT, up just under 5.1% from just above USD 2,400/MT.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

The shift traces back to several forces at once, rather than any single cause. Procurement ramped up among Midwest secondary smelters, racing against tightening automotive lightweighting timelines. Beyond that, inbound flows from Mexico, Canada, and Europe stayed strong, helped along by scrap's continued tariff exempt status. Put those factors together, and steady restocking from beverage can sheet converters carried through the quarter.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in China

The China average for aluminum scrap came in at near USD 2,427/MT, a close to 3.3% step up from about USD 2,350/MT last quarter.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q1 2026 in China?

It was less one driver than a handful combining at the same time. Furnace operations accelerated among secondary smelters, racing to meet automotive and electronics alloy orders. Further along, feedstock intake requirements pushed higher too, a consequence of newly commissioned recycling capacity from late 2025 coming online. Taken as a whole, throughput at smaller processing operations stayed curtailed, as stricter environmental inspections continued through the quarter.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in Germany

Aluminum Scrap in Germany settled at roughly USD 2,156/MT, just under 3.7% higher than the just above USD 2,080/MT seen the quarter before.

Why did the price of Aluminum Scrap change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

A few factors, taken together, account for the change. Purchases of recycled alloy ramped up among automotive OEMs in Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, pressed by CBAM compliance timelines. On top of that, supply from domestic European collection networks stayed tight relative to demand throughout. Combined, these forces meant that a further steady source of offtake came from construction sector recycling mandates.

Quarterly Aluminum Scrap Price Trends

As we can see, track the numbers quarter by quarter and a clear pattern emerges: near USD 2,165/MT in Q2 2025, about USD 2,218.75/MT in Q3, close to USD 2,277.50/MT in Q4, roughly USD 2,374.75/MT in Q1 2026, then a sharp jump to just above USD 2,616.14/MT in Q2 2026. That is a just under 20.8% move across the window, with most of it packed into the final quarter. Two things explain the acceleration: China's tightening environmental regulation on small recyclers, and restocking cycles among secondary smelters in India and the United States.

What was Aluminum Scrap Price in 2025?

Looking at the numbers, the scrap market spent 2025 tightening steadily. From a Q1 average near USD 2,120/MT, the global figure climbed to near USD 2,277.50/MT by year end, a about 7.4% gain. Regulatory tightening in China and circular economy mandates taking hold across Europe and North America both pushed in the same direction.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in India in 2025

No market moved faster than India in 2025: from about USD 2,020/MT in Q1 to close to USD 2,280/MT by Q4, a roughly 12.9% gain. New secondary smelter capacity coming online explains part of it, and automotive and construction demand climbing alongside that explains the rest.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in the United States in 2025

The US market was comparatively calm, up just under 5.3% from about USD 2,280/MT in Q1 to just above USD 2,400/MT in Q4. Inbound flows kept arriving steadily from Mexico, Canada, and Europe throughout the year, which owed itself to scrap's continued tariff exempt status.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in China in 2025

China climbed from roughly USD 2,150/MT to near USD 2,350/MT across 2025, a about 9.3% gain. Supply got squeezed by tighter rules on small recyclers even as secondary smelter demand kept expanding, and that combination did most of the work.

Aluminum Scrap Prices in Germany in 2025

Germany was the calmest of the four, edging up roughly 5.1% from about USD 1,980/MT to close to USD 2,080/MT. Automotive OEMs kept steadily purchasing recycled alloy throughout the year, pressed by CBAM compliance requirements, without the sharper swings seen elsewhere.

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Expert Market Research tracks aluminum scrap prices continuously across every major recycling and consuming region. The team traces causation through regulatory policy on scrap trade, secondary smelter demand cycles, and circular economy mandates. Contact Expert Market Research today for aluminum scrap pricing data, bespoke market analysis, and strategic procurement advisory.