Chum Salmon Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Chum Salmon prices in Japan, the highest-cost reporting region, rose 14.8% in Q3 2026 to USD 6,200/MT from USD 5,400/MT in Q2, as Alaska ex-vessel chum prices more than doubled, with Southeast chum at USD 1.55 per pound versus USD 0.66 a year earlier, and global chum supply was forecast at historic lows after Japan's runs collapsed. China prices rose 15.9% to USD 5,100/MT, while Russia prices rose 16.3% to USD 5,000/MT. Globally, the average rose from USD 4,730/MT in Q2 to USD 5,482/MT in Q3, a 15.9% gain, following a gain of 9.2% in Q2. For H2 2026, this market is expected to stay elevated, with historically low global chum supply and strong roe demand supporting prices.

Chum Salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, also called dog or keta salmon, is a Pacific salmon caught in Alaska, Russia, and Japan, sold frozen headed and gutted, as fillets, canned, and for its roe, which is made into ikura and sujiko. It is sold as frozen fish for retail and foodservice, as smoked, salted, and canned salmon, and for roe processed into ikura, a Japanese delicacy. Because supply depends on wild run size, hatchery returns, and ocean conditions, this market follows Alaska, Russian, and Japanese harvests, roe prices, and demand from China and Japan. Wild harvest and hatchery returns, roe prices, and demand from Japan and China are what drive prices in this market.

Chum Salmon Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Chum Salmon through the end of 2026 stays elevated. Alaska's 2026 forecast was about 17.2 million chum, global supply is historically low after the collapse of Japanese runs, and processors have raised prices, so values should stay well above last year. Buyers are expected to keep procurement plans flexible, tracking feedstock and freight conditions closely through the fourth quarter.

The main upside risk is weaker runs or stronger roe demand. The main downside risk is larger catches and demand destruction at high prices. Contract negotiations for the coming months are likely to hinge on how feedstock costs and demand evolve. Buyers are expected to keep procurement plans flexible, tracking feedstock and freight conditions closely through the fourth quarter.

For the Quarter Ending September 2026

Chum Salmon Prices Q3 2026:

• Japan: USD 6,200/MT
• China: USD 5,100/MT
• Alaska: USD 5,500/MT
• Russia: USD 5,000/MT

Chum Salmon Prices in Japan

Japan Chum Salmon prices averaged USD 6,200/MT in Q3 2026, the highest of any region tracked here, up 14.8% from USD 5,400/MT in Q2, as roe and flesh demand and a collapse in Japanese runs lifted prices to the top of the range. Buyers continued to absorb the higher offers, with procurement activity staying steady through September and inventories remaining broadly balanced across the supply chain.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q3 2026 in Japan?

Japanese buyers paid more as global chum supply was forecast at historic lows, with Japanese chum runs collapsing over the past three years, and demand for roe for ikura and for flesh strengthened. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Chum Salmon Prices in China

China Chum Salmon prices averaged USD 5,100/MT in Q3 2026, up 15.9% from USD 4,400/MT in Q2, as processors paid more as supply of raw material tightened. Converters and distributors kept order books active through the quarter, accepting the firmer quotations rather than delaying purchases into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q3 2026 in China?

Chinese re-processors paid more for frozen chum as Alaska and Russian supply tightened and global chum supply stayed historically low. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Chum Salmon Prices in Alaska

Alaska Chum Salmon prices averaged USD 5,500/MT in Q3 2026, up 17.0% from USD 4,700/MT in Q2, as ex-vessel prices more than doubled, with Southeast chum at USD 1.55 per pound. Suppliers held offers firm while spot availability stayed limited, which kept sentiment constructive heading into the final quarter of the year. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q3 2026 in Alaska?

Southeast Alaska chum prices averaged USD 1.55 per pound on 14 August, more than double last year's USD 0.66, with processors setting base prices about 20 percent higher at USD 1.07 per pound, as roe and flesh markets and Japanese demand strengthened and chums were about 30 percent heavier. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements.

Chum Salmon Prices in Russia

Russia Chum Salmon prices averaged USD 5,000/MT in Q3 2026, the lowest of the four regions, up 16.3% from USD 4,300/MT in Q2, as lower catches and demand from China lifted prices. Contract negotiations for the fourth quarter opened with sellers seeking further increases, reflecting the tighter cost structure that producers faced through the period.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q3 2026 in Russia?

Russian prices rose as lower catches and strong Chinese and Japanese demand tightened supply, though a larger share of fish stays within the region. Buyers covered needs selectively as offers adjusted to weekly movements. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Chum Salmon Prices Q2 2026:

• Japan: USD 5,400/MT
• China: USD 4,400/MT
• Alaska: USD 4,700/MT
• Russia: USD 4,300/MT

Chum Salmon Prices in Japan

Japan prices rose 8.0% in Q2 2026 to USD 5,400/MT from USD 5,000/MT in Q1, the highest of any region tracked here, as tight supply supported prices. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with demand holding firm and sellers reluctant to concede ground through June. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

In Q2, prices rose as pre-season forecasts of a lean Alaska chum catch lifted offers. Japanese prices rose as global chum supply tightened. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Chum Salmon Prices in China

China prices rose 10.0% in Q2 2026 to USD 4,400/MT from USD 4,000/MT in Q1, within the middle of the range tracked here, as tight supply supported prices. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with demand holding firm and sellers reluctant to concede ground through June. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q2 2026 in China?

In Q2, prices rose as pre-season forecasts of a lean Alaska chum catch lifted offers. Chinese prices rose as supply tightened. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Chum Salmon Prices in Alaska

Alaska prices rose 9.3% in Q2 2026 to USD 4,700/MT from USD 4,300/MT in Q1, within the middle of the range tracked here, as firm roe demand supported prices. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with demand holding firm and sellers reluctant to concede ground through June. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q2 2026 in Alaska?

In Q2, prices rose as pre-season forecasts of a lean Alaska chum catch lifted offers. Alaska prices rose on firm roe demand. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Chum Salmon Prices in Russia

Russia prices rose 10.3% in Q2 2026 to USD 4,300/MT from USD 3,900/MT in Q1, the lowest of the four regions, as tight supply supported prices. Quarter-end offers reflected the elevated cost base carried over from the first quarter, with demand holding firm and sellers reluctant to concede ground through June. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Why did the price of Chum Salmon change in Q2 2026 in Russia?

In Q2, prices rose as pre-season forecasts of a lean Alaska chum catch lifted offers. Russian prices rose as supply tightened. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter. Regional supply and demand balances continued to evolve as the quarter progressed, keeping price discovery active.

Quarterly Chum Salmon Price Trends

Global Chum Salmon prices firmed gradually through 2025 on tight supply, rose through the first half of 2026 on lean forecasts, and jumped in Q3 as the season began with historically low global supply and ex-vessel prices more than doubled across the regions tracked in this report. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

What was Chum Salmon Price in 2025?

Chum Salmon firmed across the markets covered in this report through 2025, tracking gradually tightening supply, with the strongest annual move recorded in Russia before the sharp Q1 2026 move and the Q3 2026 developments that followed. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Chum Salmon Prices in Japan in 2025

Japan prices firmed from about USD 4,300/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,700/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 9.3%, the smallest annual move of the four regions. Gradually tightening supply lifted pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked gradually tightening supply closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the sharp Q1 2026 move that followed.

Chum Salmon Prices in China in 2025

China prices firmed from about USD 3,300/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 3,700/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 12.1%. Gradually tightening supply lifted pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked gradually tightening supply closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the sharp Q1 2026 move that followed. Market participants continued to monitor feedstock and freight conditions closely for signs of the next directional move.

Chum Salmon Prices in Alaska in 2025

Alaska prices firmed from about USD 3,600/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 4,000/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 11.1%. Gradually tightening supply lifted pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked gradually tightening supply closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the sharp Q1 2026 move that followed. These conditions were widely expected to remain a key factor shaping offers and procurement planning into the fourth quarter.

Chum Salmon Prices in Russia in 2025

Russia prices firmed from about USD 3,200/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 3,600/MT by Q4, a gain of roughly 12.5%, the strongest annual move of the four regions. Gradually tightening supply lifted pricing through the year. Buyers and sellers tracked gradually tightening supply closely through the year, and the pattern left this market positioned for the sharp Q1 2026 move that followed.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Chum Salmon Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Chum Salmon prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining harvest and hatchery return data, roe price signals, and demand trends in Japan and China into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the trends covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this Pacific salmon is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.