Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

The United States paid the most for durum wheat flour for baking in Q3 2026: USD 1,050/MT, up 1.4% from USD 1,036/MT in Q2. High labor and freight costs and steady demand from bakeries keep American prices above the other three markets. Worldwide, the average rose 1.4% to USD 928/MT from USD 915/MT, mostly because higher durum wheat and energy costs and firm demand from bakeries and pizzerias led millers to raise prices in all four markets. What about Q4 2026? We expect a global average somewhere in the USD 905-980/MT range, with durum wheat prices, harvest results in Canada and the Mediterranean, energy costs and demand from bakeries doing most of the work.

Durum wheat flour for baking is a fine, pale yellow flour made from durum wheat, often sold as re-milled semolina. It makes dense, golden breads, pizza bases and pastries with a chewy crumb, and it is used in blends with soft wheat flour. Prices in this report refer to fine durum flour for bakeries in bags and are quoted per metric ton. They depend on durum wheat prices, milling costs and demand from bakeries.

Canada, Turkey, Italy and the United States are the main sources of durum wheat and flour. Millers clean the grain, grind it and sift it repeatedly to a fine grind, so extraction and energy costs affect margins. Most of the durum crop goes to pasta, so bakery flour is a smaller market with higher prices than standard wheat flour. Bakeries buy in 25 kilogram bags and bulk, often under contract.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Price Forecast for 2026

Prices should rise modestly through the rest of 2026. Durum wheat prices are firm and demand from bakeries and pizzerias is steady. Good yields in Canada limit the size of the increase. Year on year, the global average has moved from USD 889/MT to USD 928/MT, an increase of 4.4%.

For Q4, risks to the price are evenly spread. What could push prices higher? Lower durum yields, higher energy costs or stronger demand from bakeries would lift prices. What could pull them lower? Larger durum crops, lower wheat prices or weaker demand from bakeries would lower prices.

For the Quarter Ending September 2026

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices Q3 2026:

• Turkey: USD 800/MT
• Canada: USD 880/MT
• Italy: USD 980/MT
• United States: USD 1,050/MT

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Turkey

Turkey gained 1.5% to USD 800/MT in Q3 2026, from USD 788/MT in Q2. Turkish prices rose as the demand from bakeries improved. Compared with Q3 2025, when Turkey averaged USD 763/MT, the current price is 4.8% higher. Against the four-market average of USD 928/MT, Turkey stood 13.8% below in the quarter.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q3 2026 in Turkey?

Turkey rose. Demand from bakeries improved, durum wheat costs increased, and millers raised prices. This leaves Turkey 3.5% higher than at the end of 2025, when the average was USD 773/MT, while the global average is 3.2% higher over the same period. Across the four markets the average was 1.4% higher on the quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Canada

In Q3 2026, the average price in Canada rose 1.3% to USD 880/MT, compared with USD 869/MT in Q2. Canadian prices rose as the demand from export buyers improved. Measured against Q3 2025, when the average stood at USD 845/MT, the market is 4.1% higher. Canada finished Q3 2026 5.2% below the four-market average of USD 928/MT.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q3 2026 in Canada?

Canada rose. Demand from export buyers improved, durum wheat costs increased, and millers raised offers. From USD 853/MT at the close of 2025 to USD 880/MT in Q3 2026, the price in Canada has risen 3.2%, and the global average has risen 3.2%. On the global measure the average was 1.4% higher over the quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Italy

Italy's average moved up 1.2% in Q3 2026, to USD 980/MT from USD 968/MT in Q2. Italian prices rose as the demand from bakeries and pizzerias improved. In Q3 2025 the average was USD 944/MT, so the market is 3.8% higher on a yearly basis. The four markets averaged USD 928/MT in the quarter, so the price in Italy was 5.6% higher.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q3 2026 in Italy?

Italy rose. Demand from bakeries and pizzerias improved, durum wheat costs increased, and millers raised prices. Across the first three quarters of 2026, Italy has moved up 2.8% from USD 953/MT in Q4 2025 to USD 980/MT, against a 3.2% gain for the global average. For comparison, the global average moved 1.4% higher over the same quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in United States

Prices in the United States firmed 1.4% in Q3 2026 to USD 1,050/MT, compared with USD 1,036/MT in Q2. American prices rose as the demand from bakeries improved. This represents a 4.5% increase on the USD 1,005/MT recorded in Q3 2025. In comparison with the average of USD 928/MT across the four markets, the price in the United States was 13.1% higher.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q3 2026 in United States?

The United States rose. Demand from bakeries improved, labor costs increased, and millers raised prices. Year to date, the United States is 3.2% higher than the Q4 2025 level of USD 1,017/MT, while the global average is 3.2% higher. The global average shifted 1.4% higher in the same quarter. This represents a quarter-on-quarter change of 1.4% for the United States.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices Q2 2026:

• Turkey: USD 788/MT
• Canada: USD 869/MT
• Italy: USD 968/MT
• United States: USD 1,036/MT

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Turkey

Prices in Turkey firmed 1.0% in Q2 2026 to USD 788/MT, compared with USD 780/MT in Q1. Turkish prices rose as the demand from bakeries strengthened. A year earlier, in Q2 2025, the average stood at USD 749/MT, which makes the current price 5.2% higher. The gap to the four-market average of USD 915/MT was 13.9% below for Turkey.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q2 2026 in Turkey?

Turkey rose. Demand from bakeries strengthened, durum wheat costs went up, and millers lifted prices. The 0.9% gain in Q1 set the base, and Q2 finished 5.2% above the USD 749/MT recorded a year earlier. Q3 added to the change, with the price at USD 800/MT. The global average shifted 1.0% higher in the same quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Canada

Canada recorded a 1.0% gain in Q2 2026, with the average reaching USD 869/MT against USD 860/MT in Q1. Canadian prices rose as the demand from export buyers strengthened. Taking Q2 2025 as the base, at USD 832/MT, the latest quarter is 4.4% higher. Relative to the four-market average of USD 915/MT, Canada traded 5.0% below in Q2 2026.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q2 2026 in Canada?

Canada rose. Demand from export buyers strengthened, durum wheat costs went up, and millers lifted offers. This followed a 0.8% gain in Q1 and left Canada 4.4% above its Q2 2025 average of USD 832/MT. The move then extended in Q3, taking the price to USD 880/MT. Across the four markets the average was 1.0% higher on the quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Italy

The Q2 2026 average for Italy stood at USD 968/MT, an increase of 0.8% on the USD 960/MT recorded in Q1. Italian prices rose as the demand from bakeries strengthened. Against the USD 929/MT recorded in Q2 2025, the current average represents a 4.2% increase. This places Italy 5.8% above the four-market average of USD 915/MT for Q2 2026.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q2 2026 in Italy?

Italy rose. Demand from bakeries strengthened, energy costs went up, and millers lifted prices. After a 0.7% gain in Q1, the quarter closed 4.2% above the USD 929/MT recorded in Q2 2025. The same direction continued in Q3, with the price reaching USD 980/MT. On the global measure the average was 1.0% higher over the quarter.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in United States

The United States registered a 1.1% increase in Q2 2026, taking the average to USD 1,036/MT from USD 1,025/MT in Q1. American prices rose as the demand from bakeries strengthened. The Q2 2025 average of USD 986/MT puts the current price 5.1% above its level a year earlier. Against the four-market average of USD 915/MT, the United States stood 13.2% above in the quarter.

Why did the price of Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) change in Q2 2026 in United States?

The United States rose. Demand from bakeries strengthened, freight costs went up, and millers lifted prices. This came on top of a 0.8% gain in Q1, and the average ended 5.1% above its level of a year earlier, when it stood at USD 986/MT. Q3 added to the change, with the price at USD 1,050/MT.

Quarterly Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Price Trends

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) prices rose through 2025 and the first half of 2026 and rose again in the third quarter in all four markets. The global average moved from USD 860/MT in Q1 2025 to 874 in Q2, 889 in Q3 and 899 in Q4, then 906 in Q1 2026, 915 in Q2 and 928 in Q3, a net gain of roughly 7.9% across the window. Higher durum wheat costs and steady demand from bakeries lifted prices for six quarters.

What was Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Price in 2025?

2025 was a year of gradual increases for durum wheat flour for baking, with prices rising in each quarter in all four markets. Starting near USD 860/MT in Q1, the global average finished the year at 899 in Q4, a gain of about 4.5%. Higher durum wheat costs and steady demand from bakeries supported millers throughout the year.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Turkey in 2025

In Turkey, prices moved from about USD 736/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 773/MT by Q4, up roughly 5.0%. Turkish prices rose gradually as durum wheat costs and demand from bakeries increased. Since the 2025 close of USD 773/MT, the price in Turkey has moved up 3.5%, reaching USD 800/MT in Q3 2026.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Canada in 2025

In Canada, prices moved from about USD 820/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 853/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.0%. Canadian prices rose gradually as durum wheat costs and demand from export buyers increased. At USD 880/MT in Q3 2026, Canada stands 3.2% above its Q4 2025 close. The same regional pattern is carried into the quarterly analysis above, where the quarter-by-quarter figures can be traced.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in Italy in 2025

In Italy, prices moved from about USD 916/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 953/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.0%. Italian prices rose gradually as the energy costs and demand from bakeries increased. The Q4 2025 close of USD 953/MT compares with USD 980/MT in Q3 2026, a 2.8% increase. The quarterly sections above show how the annual average developed over the year.

Durum Wheat Flour (Baking) Prices in United States in 2025

In the United States, prices moved from about USD 969/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,017/MT by Q4, up roughly 5.0%. American prices rose gradually as the freight costs and demand from bakeries increased. Relative to the end of 2025, the price in the United States is 3.2% higher at USD 1,050/MT. The quarterly breakdown above allows each stage of that path to be traced.

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We keep a continuous eye on durum wheat flour for baking prices wherever it is produced or consumed at scale, tracing causation through durum wheat prices, harvest results, milling costs, energy costs and demand from bakeries and pizzerias. Our forecasts draw on production data, trade flows, input cost trends and demand indicators across all reporting regions, so subscribers see why a price moved and not just that it did. Need pricing data, bespoke market analysis, or procurement advisory? Reach out to our team.