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Iron Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
Global pig iron output was 913 million tonnes in January to August 2026, down 2.2 percent, with China at 563 million tonnes (down 3.1 percent), India at 106 million (up 4 percent) and Japan at 39 million. Brazil exported about 2.5 million tonnes, down 7 percent, of which the United States took 1.9 million.
Merchant pig iron FOB Brazil was USD 410 per tonne in January 2026, USD 430 in February, USD 455 in March, USD 470 to 485 in April, USD 480 in May, USD 495 in June, USD 495 to 500 in July, USD 475 in August and USD 445 at the end of September.
Iron Prices in October 2026
Brazilian pig iron stood at USD 445 per tonne FOB at the end of September 2026, down from the June to July peak but about 9 percent above January. Prices are expected to stay soft in October. The price outlook is shaped by four key drivers.
- Raw materials: Iron ore hit a two year low near USD 90 per tonne in October 2026 on weak China demand, while Australian coking coal jumped 21 percent in two weeks to USD 279 per tonne in August 2026, squeezing merchant producer margins.
- Steel demand: China made 74.6 million tonnes of crude steel in August 2026, down 3.7 percent on the year, and January to August output fell 3.1 percent, with weak end user demand the main restraint on the market.
- Trade flows: Brazilian pig iron gained an exemption from 25 percent US tariffs from July 2026, but Indian exports rose over 300 percent to 1.2 million tonnes in April to August, 88 percent of it to the United States.
- EU carbon border cost: The EU carbon border mechanism entered its definitive phase in January 2026, adding an estimated USD 236 per tonne for South African, USD 112 for Ukrainian and USD 45 for Brazilian pig iron at a carbon price near USD 90.
Supplier news: KIC Metaliks of India planned an outage of about six weeks from September 2026, putting 30,000 to 37,500 tonnes of output at risk. Thyssenkrupp took Duisburg blast furnace 2 offline in late August 2026 for about six weeks, and ArcelorMittal's Gijon blast furnace A restarted in September after a steam explosion. Short term, outages and carbon costs support European offers. Long term, weak steel demand caps prices.
Iron Price Forecast for 2026
Expect steady gains across all four markets through H2 2026 as iron ore and coking coal costs continue firming.
China's infrastructure-driven demand recovery should keep supporting basic pig iron consumption specifically.
Brazil remains the most price-competitive origin given its integrated iron ore access, a gap that should persist through the forecast period.
Across all 4 regions combined, prices moved 3.0% increase on average between Q1 and Q2 2026. Absent a meaningful change to the cost or demand drivers outlined above, that pace looks set to carry into the second half of the year.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/KG) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 0.390 - 0.430 | Balance of regional supply and demand conditions |
| China | 0.396 - 0.437 | Government infrastructure spending kept basic oxygen furnace utilisation firm |
| India | 0.382 - 0.422 | Strong domestic steel demand growth kept India's pig iron market firming in step with the broader Asian trend |
| United States | 0.428 - 0.472 | Foundry demand held steady |
| Brazil | 0.354 - 0.391 | Integrated ore access kept Brazil's pricing the most competitive of the group even as it tracked the same overall upward direction |
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
Iron Prices Q2 2026:
- China: USD 0.408/KG
- India: USD 0.394/KG
- United States: USD 0.441/KG
- Brazil: USD 0.365/KG
Iron Prices in China
China rose 3.3% to USD 0.408/KG in Q2 2026, government infrastructure spending kept basic oxygen furnace utilisation firm, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q2 2026 in China?
Government infrastructure spending kept basic oxygen furnace utilisation firm, lifting demand for pig iron alongside rising ore costs, working out to China trading about 1.5% above this quarter's 4-region average.
Iron Prices in India
USD 0.394/KG. That is where India landed in Q2 2026, up 4.2% from USD 0.378/KG in Q1 2026, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q2 2026 in India?
Strong domestic steel demand growth kept India's pig iron market firming in step with the broader Asian trend, leaving India running roughly 2.0% below the 4-region average for the quarter.
Iron Prices in United States
United States's price gained 2.6% to USD 0.441/KG, foundry demand held steady and higher scrap-adjacent costs supported, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q2 2026 in United States?
Foundry demand held steady, and higher scrap-adjacent costs supported another incremental increase, with United States now sitting about 9.7% above the 4-region average this quarter.
Iron Prices in Brazil
In Q2 2026, Brazil priced at USD 0.365/KG, up 2.0% from USD 0.358/KG the previous quarter, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q2 2026 in Brazil?
Integrated ore access kept Brazil's pricing the most competitive of the group even as it tracked the same overall upward direction, which puts Brazil roughly 9.2% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.
For the Quarter Ending March 2026
Iron Prices Q1 2026:
- China: USD 0.395/KG
- India: USD 0.378/KG
- United States: USD 0.430/KG
- Brazil: USD 0.358/KG
Iron Prices in China
China rose 1.6% to USD 0.395/KG in Q1 2026, early-year restocking ahead of the construction season lifted demand, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q1 2026 in China?
Early-year restocking ahead of the construction season lifted demand as the calendar turned, working out to China trading about 1.2% above this quarter's 4-region average.
Iron Prices in India
USD 0.378/KG. That is where India landed in Q1 2026, up 1.8% from USD 0.371/KG in Q4 2025, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q1 2026 in India?
Steady infrastructure and manufacturing growth supported a firm start to the year, leaving India running roughly 3.1% below the 4-region average for the quarter.
Iron Prices in United States
United States's price gained 1.1% to USD 0.430/KG, foundry order books held up well supporting a modest, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q1 2026 in United States?
Foundry order books held up well, supporting a modest early-year gain, with United States now sitting about 10.2% above the 4-region average this quarter.
Iron Prices in Brazil
In Q1 2026, Brazil priced at USD 0.358/KG, up 1.3% from USD 0.353/KG the previous quarter, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.
Why did the price of Iron change in Q1 2026 in Brazil?
Consistent export demand for Brazil's competitively priced pig iron carried prices modestly higher, which puts Brazil roughly 8.3% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.
Quarterly Iron Price Trends
The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 0.369/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.402 by Q2 2026, a gain of 9.0% over six quarters.
| Quarter | Price (USD/KG) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q2 2026 | 0.402 | +3.0% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2026 | 0.390 | +1.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2025 | 0.385 | +1.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 0.379 | +1.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2025 | 0.374 | +1.4% | ↑ Rising |
| Q1 2025 | 0.369 | - | - Stable |
| Q3 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was Iron Price in 2025?
Looking back at 2025, the global iron average ran from about USD 0.369/KG in Q1 to USD 0.385 by Q4, a 4.3% increase across the year.
Iron Prices in China in 2025
China prices moved from about USD 0.371/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.389 by Q4, up roughly 4.8%. China closed the year ranked 2 of the 4 markets this report tracks.
Iron Prices in India in 2025
India prices moved from about USD 0.352/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.371 by Q4, up roughly 5.5%, leaving India in 3 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.
Iron Prices in United States in 2025
United States prices moved from about USD 0.412/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.425 by Q4, up roughly 3.3%. That left United States ranked 1 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.
Iron Prices in Brazil in 2025
Brazil prices moved from about USD 0.340/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 0.353 by Q4, up roughly 3.9%, placing Brazil 4 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.
How We Can Help
Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Iron Price Intelligence
We keep a continuous watch on iron prices across every region that produces or consumes it at scale, tracing the raw material and demand drivers back to their source rather than just reporting the number. Our team pulls together iron ore and coking coal cost trends, regional supply and demand shifts, and policy developments into a single, regularly refreshed view of the market.
We build our forecasts from production capacity, feedstock cost trends, and regional demand data, aiming to give procurement teams something they can actually use in budgeting and supplier negotiations, not just a headline number.
If you need a deeper regional breakdown, a longer historical run than the six quarters shown here, or a sourcing analysis built around your specific procurement footprint, our analysts are available to help.
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Frequently Asked Questions About This Report
Iron in this report refers to pig iron, the primary product of the blast furnace before it is converted into steel or cast directly into iron products. It is made by smelting iron ore with coking coal and limestone, and it serves as the base feedstock for foundries as well as basic oxygen furnace steelmaking.
In Q2 2026, it averaged USD 0.408/KG in China, USD 0.394/KG in India, USD 0.441/KG in United States, USD 0.365/KG in Brazil, with United States the priciest of the 4 markets tracked in this report.
The global average moved from USD 0.385/KG in Q4 2025 to USD 0.390 in Q1 2026, then to USD 0.402 by Q2, a 4.5% increase across the two quarters.
Government infrastructure spending kept basic oxygen furnace utilisation firm lifting demand for pig iron alongside rising ore costs, and the other regions covered here moved for largely the same underlying reasons, filtered through their own local supply and demand conditions.
Expect steady gains across all four markets through H2 2026 as iron ore and coking coal costs continue firming.
United States sits at the top given its cost and demand structure, while Brazil trades lowest of the 4 markets tracked here. The gap between them reflects local production costs, import exposure, and demand intensity, and it is worth revisiting each quarter since the ranking can shift as input costs move.
Iron ore prices, the single largest cost input into pig iron production; Coking coal costs, the second major feedstock and a source of independent price volatility; Steel and foundry industry demand more broadly, since pig iron sits at the very start of that chain, along with broader macroeconomic conditions across the 4 regions this report tracks.
Iron in this report refers to pig iron, the primary product of the blast furnace before it is converted into steel or cast directly into iron products. It is made by smelting iron ore with coking coal and limestone, and it serves as the base feedstock for foundries as well as basic oxygen furnace steelmaking.
Basic pig iron feeds directly into basic oxygen furnace steelmaking and has looser composition tolerances, while foundry grade requires tighter control over silicon, sulfur, and phosphorus content to produce quality iron castings. Foundry grade typically commands a premium of roughly 10 to 15 percent over basic grade.
Monthly, though our analysts flag any material shift in feedstock costs or regional demand as soon as it emerges.
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