Polyethylene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Polyethylene (PE) is the most widely used plastic globally and is produced in high-density, low-density and linear low-density grades for films, bottles, pipes, containers and moulded goods. The United States, the Middle East, China and Europe lead supply, and the Middle East accounted for over 40 percent of PE exports in 2025, led by Saudi Arabia.

Pricing in 2026 has been shaped by the Iran conflict. PE and polypropylene prices rose to roughly four-year highs in March, and Dow's chief executive stated that up to 50 percent of PE supply was offline, constrained or impacted. The global average rose from about USD 1,012 per tonne in the first quarter to USD 1,042 in the second, with the United States up from USD 1,143 to USD 1,194. Westlake stated that PE prices exited the second quarter slightly below the quarterly average but above pre-conflict levels.

Polyethylene Prices in October 2026

As of August 2026, US polyethylene was assessed at about USD 1,200 per tonne EXW, up about 8 percent from USD 1,113 in July.

• Loss of Gulf supply: Sadara, the Aramco and Dow joint venture with over 3 million tonnes a year of capacity, halted production at Jubail in March with no restart estimate, and the IEA stated in September that over 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remains halted.
• Crude oil linkage: Brent traded near USD 102 per barrel in September, and Westlake stated that future PE pricing will be heavily influenced by global oil prices, which raise costs for naphtha-based producers in Asia and Europe.
• US feedstock advantage: Westlake reported that North American natural gas and ethane costs fell significantly from the first quarter, giving US producers a cost advantage over naphtha-based competitors in Asia and Europe.
• Weaker demand signals: The IEA's September cut to its 2026 oil demand forecast, to a decline of 2.5 million barrels per day, and lower PE and PVC resin volumes at Westlake point to weaker demand.

Supplier news: Westlake stated in August that most production problems were resolved by the end of the second quarter, that it expects fewer planned shutdowns and higher run rates in the second half, and that year-end PE prices should exceed those of a year earlier, which eases US supply in the short term, while Sadara's open-ended halt keeps Gulf supply uncertain.

Polyethylene Price Forecast for 2026

Expect the United States, Germany, and the Middle East to keep firming through H2 2026 as packaging and construction demand continues its gradual recovery. China's trajectory looks more mixed given ample domestic supply meeting still-cautious downstream buying, which could keep Chinese pricing range-bound even as the other three markets climb. The Middle East should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its advantaged feedstock access, assuming regional shipping disruptions do not re-escalate. Any renewed disruption to Middle East shipping lanes would be the clearest upside risk to watch, given how sharply that exact scenario moved global pricing earlier in 2026.

Taken together, the 4 markets in this report averaged a 2.9% increase quarter on quarter through the first half of 2026, a pace we expect to broadly continue barring a shift in the underlying cost or demand picture described above.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Polyethylene Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 1,194/MT
• China: USD 1,023/MT
• Germany: USD 991/MT
• Middle East: USD 958/MT

Polyethylene Prices in United States

United States reached USD 1,194/MT in Q2 2026, steady demand from packaging and construction sectors met balanced supply conditions, making it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Steady demand from packaging and construction sectors met balanced supply conditions, supporting continued firmness, which puts United States roughly 14.6% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.3% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, United States's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.

Polyethylene Prices in China

China fell 1.3% to USD 1,023/MT in Q2 2026, adequate domestic supply met cautious downstream purchasing, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in China?

Adequate domestic supply met cautious downstream purchasing, pulling Chinese pricing down slightly even as the rest of the group firmed, working out to China trading about 1.8% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 1.7% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany

USD 991/MT. That is where Germany landed in Q2 2026, up 4.4% from USD 949/MT in Q1 2026, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

Consistent demand from packaging, automotive, and industrial applications met regional supply constraints from maintenance-related production adjustments, keeping Germany firm, leaving Germany running roughly 4.8% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is faster than the 2.1% average quarterly move Germany has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East

Middle East's price gained 4.0% to USD 958/MT, advantaged feedstock access kept Middle Eastern pricing the most competitive of the group, putting it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in Middle East?

Advantaged feedstock access kept Middle Eastern pricing the most competitive of the group, even as it firmed in step with the broader market, with Middle East now sitting about 8.0% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Middle East has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Polyethylene Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 1,143/MT
• China: USD 1,036/MT
• Germany: USD 949/MT
• Middle East: USD 921/MT

Polyethylene Prices in United States

United States reached USD 1,143/MT in Q1 2026, rising feedstock costs and regional supply constraints supported a firm start to the year, making it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Rising feedstock costs and regional supply constraints supported a firm start to the year, which puts United States roughly 12.9% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.3% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, United States's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.

Polyethylene Prices in China

China rose 1.8% to USD 1,036/MT in Q1 2026, rising ethylene production costs and improving demand from packaging and infrastructure sectors supported a firm early-year increase, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in China?

Rising ethylene production costs and improving demand from packaging and infrastructure sectors supported a firm early-year increase, before the softer Q2 turn, working out to China trading about 2.3% above this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 1.7% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany

USD 949/MT. That is where Germany landed in Q1 2026, up 1.5% from USD 935/MT in Q4 2025, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Volatile crude oil prices and tightening supply conditions pushed European pricing higher as the year began, leaving Germany running roughly 6.2% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is slower than the 2.1% average quarterly move Germany has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East

Middle East's price gained 1.4% to USD 921/MT, a conflict-driven disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply tightened regional supply and feedstock costs, putting it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in Middle East?

A conflict-driven disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply tightened regional supply and feedstock costs, driving a strong early-year increase, with Middle East now sitting about 9.0% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Middle East has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.

Quarterly Polyethylene Price Trends

The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 949/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,042 by Q2 2026, a gain of 9.8% over six quarters.

What was Polyethylene Price in 2025?

Polyethylene pricing trended upward through 2025 on a global average basis, starting the year around USD 949/MT and ending it at USD 996, a 5.0% increase over the four quarters.

Polyethylene Prices in United States in 2025

United States prices moved from about USD 1,065/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,123 by Q4, up roughly 5.4%, placing United States 1 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.

Polyethylene Prices in China in 2025

China prices moved from about USD 965/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,018 by Q4, up roughly 5.5%. China closed the year ranked 2 of the 4 markets this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany in 2025

Germany prices moved from about USD 895/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 935 by Q4, up roughly 4.5%, leaving Germany in 3 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East in 2025

Middle East prices moved from about USD 870/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 908 by Q4, up roughly 4.4%. That left Middle East ranked 4 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Polyethylene Price Intelligence

Tracking polyethylene prices means tracking what actually moves them: ethylene, comonomer (1-butene/1-hexene), and naphtha costs, regional demand shifts, and the policy decisions that touch both. Our team maintains that view across every region in this report, refreshing it as conditions change.

Rather than a single static figure, our forecasts blend capacity data, feedstock cost trends, and demand signals from across the regions we cover, built specifically to support procurement budgeting and supplier negotiations.

Reach out to our analysts for a deeper regional breakdown, historical data extending beyond the six quarters shown here, or a custom polyethylene sourcing analysis tailored to your specific procurement footprint.

We track LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE pricing as related but distinct grades, since packaging, construction, and industrial demand can pull the three density families in different directions within the same quarter.