Polyethylene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

United States paid the most for polyethylene in Q2 2026: USD 1,194/MT, up 4.5% from USD 1,143 in Q1. Polyethylene is the world's most widely produced plastic, polymerised from ethylene into three main density families: low density (LDPE) for film and flexible packaging, linear low density (LLDPE) for stretch film and bags, and high density (HDPE) for pipe, blow-moulded containers, and injection-moulded products.

The United States holds a structural cost advantage in ethylene production thanks to abundant, low-cost shale gas feedstock, while Middle Eastern producers, particularly in Saudi Arabia, benefit from similarly advantaged access to associated natural gas from oil production, keeping both regions more competitively priced than naphtha-dependent Europe and much of Asia. 2026 has brought unusual volatility to the polyethylene market: a Middle East conflict that disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Asian and feedstock costs sharply higher earlier in the year, before regional supply patterns partially normalised.

Packaging remains the single largest end use across all three density grades, spanning food packaging film, retail bags, and industrial shrink wrap, which keeps polyethylene demand closely tied to broader consumer goods and food distribution activity worldwide. China's domestic polyethylene capacity has expanded rapidly over the past decade, and periods of ample domestic supply meeting only cautious downstream buying have at times pushed Chinese pricing below what feedstock costs alone would suggest, a pattern distinct from the tighter US and European markets.

Middle East remained the most affordable origin tracked in this report, trading roughly 25% below United States through Q2 2026. Procurement teams sourcing across borders should factor that spread against their own freight and duty costs before comparing landed price.

Polyethylene Price Forecast for 2026

Expect the United States, Germany, and the Middle East to keep firming through H2 2026 as packaging and construction demand continues its gradual recovery. China's trajectory looks more mixed given ample domestic supply meeting still-cautious downstream buying, which could keep Chinese pricing range-bound even as the other three markets climb. The Middle East should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its advantaged feedstock access, assuming regional shipping disruptions do not re-escalate. Any renewed disruption to Middle East shipping lanes would be the clearest upside risk to watch, given how sharply that exact scenario moved global pricing earlier in 2026.

Taken together, the 4 markets in this report averaged a 2.9% increase quarter on quarter through the first half of 2026, a pace we expect to broadly continue barring a shift in the underlying cost or demand picture described above.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Polyethylene Prices Q2 2026:

• United States: USD 1,194/MT
• China: USD 1,023/MT
• Germany: USD 991/MT
• Middle East: USD 958/MT

Polyethylene Prices in United States

United States reached USD 1,194/MT in Q2 2026, steady demand from packaging and construction sectors met balanced supply conditions, making it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in United States?

Steady demand from packaging and construction sectors met balanced supply conditions, supporting continued firmness, which puts United States roughly 14.6% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.3% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, United States's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.

Polyethylene Prices in China

China fell 1.3% to USD 1,023/MT in Q2 2026, adequate domestic supply met cautious downstream purchasing, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in China?

Adequate domestic supply met cautious downstream purchasing, pulling Chinese pricing down slightly even as the rest of the group firmed, working out to China trading about 1.8% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 1.7% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany

USD 991/MT. That is where Germany landed in Q2 2026, up 4.4% from USD 949/MT in Q1 2026, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

Consistent demand from packaging, automotive, and industrial applications met regional supply constraints from maintenance-related production adjustments, keeping Germany firm, leaving Germany running roughly 4.8% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is faster than the 2.1% average quarterly move Germany has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East

Middle East's price gained 4.0% to USD 958/MT, advantaged feedstock access kept Middle Eastern pricing the most competitive of the group, putting it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q2 2026 in Middle East?

Advantaged feedstock access kept Middle Eastern pricing the most competitive of the group, even as it firmed in step with the broader market, with Middle East now sitting about 8.0% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Middle East has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Polyethylene Prices Q1 2026:

• United States: USD 1,143/MT
• China: USD 1,036/MT
• Germany: USD 949/MT
• Middle East: USD 921/MT

Polyethylene Prices in United States

United States reached USD 1,143/MT in Q1 2026, rising feedstock costs and regional supply constraints supported a firm start to the year, making it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in United States?

Rising feedstock costs and regional supply constraints supported a firm start to the year, which puts United States roughly 12.9% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.3% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, United States's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.

Polyethylene Prices in China

China rose 1.8% to USD 1,036/MT in Q1 2026, rising ethylene production costs and improving demand from packaging and infrastructure sectors supported a firm early-year increase, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in China?

Rising ethylene production costs and improving demand from packaging and infrastructure sectors supported a firm early-year increase, before the softer Q2 turn, working out to China trading about 2.3% above this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 1.7% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany

USD 949/MT. That is where Germany landed in Q1 2026, up 1.5% from USD 935/MT in Q4 2025, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Volatile crude oil prices and tightening supply conditions pushed European pricing higher as the year began, leaving Germany running roughly 6.2% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is slower than the 2.1% average quarterly move Germany has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East

Middle East's price gained 1.4% to USD 921/MT, a conflict-driven disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply tightened regional supply and feedstock costs, putting it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Polyethylene change in Q1 2026 in Middle East?

A conflict-driven disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply tightened regional supply and feedstock costs, driving a strong early-year increase, with Middle East now sitting about 9.0% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Middle East has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.

Quarterly Polyethylene Price Trends

The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 949/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,042 by Q2 2026, a gain of 9.8% over six quarters.

What was Polyethylene Price in 2025?

Polyethylene pricing trended upward through 2025 on a global average basis, starting the year around USD 949/MT and ending it at USD 996, a 5.0% increase over the four quarters.

Polyethylene Prices in United States in 2025

United States prices moved from about USD 1,065/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,123 by Q4, up roughly 5.4%, placing United States 1 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.

Polyethylene Prices in China in 2025

China prices moved from about USD 965/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,018 by Q4, up roughly 5.5%. China closed the year ranked 2 of the 4 markets this report tracks.

Polyethylene Prices in Germany in 2025

Germany prices moved from about USD 895/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 935 by Q4, up roughly 4.5%, leaving Germany in 3 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.

Polyethylene Prices in Middle East in 2025

Middle East prices moved from about USD 870/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 908 by Q4, up roughly 4.4%. That left Middle East ranked 4 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Polyethylene Price Intelligence

Tracking polyethylene prices means tracking what actually moves them: ethylene, comonomer (1-butene/1-hexene), and naphtha costs, regional demand shifts, and the policy decisions that touch both. Our team maintains that view across every region in this report, refreshing it as conditions change.

Rather than a single static figure, our forecasts blend capacity data, feedstock cost trends, and demand signals from across the regions we cover, built specifically to support procurement budgeting and supplier negotiations.

Reach out to our analysts for a deeper regional breakdown, historical data extending beyond the six quarters shown here, or a custom polyethylene sourcing analysis tailored to your specific procurement footprint.

We track LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE pricing as related but distinct grades, since packaging, construction, and industrial demand can pull the three density families in different directions within the same quarter.