Propylene Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Market Overview

Propylene prices moved in sharply different directions across regions in Q2 2026. German naphtha-based prices reversed hard, falling 6.7% to USD 980.00/MT after a Hormuz-driven spike to USD 1,050.00/MT in Q1, while US propane dehydrogenation-based prices staged a partial recovery, up 5.2% to USD 590.00/MT after collapsing 17.5% in Q1 alone on chronic oversupply. Globally, the average fell from USD 792.25/MT in Q1 to USD 776.25/MT in Q2, a 2.0% retreat. For H2 2026, a global average of USD 730.00-850.00/MT is expected, with the wide gap between an oversupplied North America and a feedstock-exposed Europe likely to persist even as it narrows somewhat.

Propylene, or propene, is the second-largest petrochemical building block after ethylene, produced through steam cracking of naphtha or ethane, propane dehydrogenation, or as a byproduct of fluid catalytic cracking in oil refining. It serves as the essential feedstock for polypropylene, the largest derivative, alongside propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, and cumene, underpinning a vast downstream value chain spanning packaging, automotive components, textiles, and construction materials. Naphtha and propane feedstock costs, which diverge sharply by region depending on production route, propane dehydrogenation capacity additions in China, and refinery and steam cracker operating rates are what drive prices in this market.

Propylene Price Forecast for 2026

The outlook for Propylene through H2 2026 points to continued regional divergence rather than a single global direction. North America should see a gradual recovery as the inventory overhang from chronic propane dehydrogenation oversupply clears, Asian markets should stay comparatively soft as Chinese capacity additions continue, and the Middle East's earlier 2025 strength should moderate as regional shipping conditions gradually normalize.

The main upside risk is a renewed escalation of Strait of Hormuz-related shipping disruptions, which would push naphtha-exposed regional prices sharply higher again, much as it did in Q1. The main downside risk is continued propane dehydrogenation capacity additions in China and North America outpacing demand growth, which would keep global average prices under persistent pressure.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Propylene Prices Q2 2026:

• Germany: USD 980.00/MT
• Saudi Arabia: USD 860.00/MT
• China: USD 745.00/MT
• United States: USD 590.00/MT

Propylene Prices in Germany

German Propylene prices averaged USD 980.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 6.7% from USD 1,050.00/MT in Q1, as the sharp Hormuz-driven spike from earlier in the year partially unwound.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q2 2026 in Germany?

As shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz began normalizing and crude oil prices eased back from their Q1 highs, naphtha feedstock costs for German and broader European crackers retreated in step, pulling finished propylene prices down sharply.

Propylene Prices in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian prices averaged USD 860.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 2.3% from USD 880.00/MT in Q1, as the region's earlier strength began moderating.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q2 2026 in Saudi Arabia?

Regional shipping conditions gradually improved from the acute disruption seen earlier in the year, easing some of the risk premium that had pushed prices higher through most of 2025 and into Q1 2026.

Propylene Prices in China

Chinese prices averaged USD 745.00/MT in Q2 2026, down 2.0% from USD 760.00/MT in Q1, as ongoing propane dehydrogenation capacity additions kept this market comparatively soft.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q2 2026 in China?

Continued propane dehydrogenation capacity additions kept domestic supply ample, and while feedstock costs moved higher earlier in the year on Hormuz-related pressure, that cost pass-through faded as the broader oversupply picture reasserted itself.

Propylene Prices in the United States

US Propylene prices, the lowest of any region tracked here, averaged USD 590.00/MT in Q2 2026, up 5.2% from USD 561.00/MT in Q1, a partial recovery after a sharp Q1 collapse driven by chronic oversupply.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q2 2026 in the United States?

Weaker demand from the polypropylene, propylene oxide, and acrylonitrile production industries began stabilizing after the sharp Q1 correction, and while excess output from propane dehydrogenation and refinery-grade propylene kept the market oversupplied, some of the most acute pricing pressure eased.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Propylene Prices Q1 2026:

• Germany: USD 1,050.00/MT
• Saudi Arabia: USD 880.00/MT
• China: USD 760.00/MT
• United States: USD 561.00/MT

Propylene Prices in Germany

German prices spiked 22.1% in Q1 2026 to USD 1,050.00/MT from USD 860.00/MT in Q4 2025, as crude oil prices surged amid disruption to global oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q1 2026 in Germany?

Naphtha-based European producers, already the most expensive in the world on a structural basis, felt the full force of the crude oil spike tied to Iran war disruptions, pushing German prices to their highest level in the six quarters covered in this report.

Propylene Prices in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian prices rose 4.6% in Q1 2026 to USD 880.00/MT from USD 841.00/MT in Q4 2025, extending a strong run that had defined the Middle Eastern market throughout 2025.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q1 2026 in Saudi Arabia?

The Middle East surged through 2025 on strong regional demand and export competitiveness, and that momentum, combined with a modest boost from the broader crude oil price spike, carried into Q1 2026 before beginning to moderate.

Propylene Prices in China

Chinese prices rose 5.6% in Q1 2026 to USD 760.00/MT from USD 720.00/MT in Q4 2025, as Middle East-linked feedstock cost pressure fed through even amid a persistently oversupplied domestic market.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q1 2026 in China?

The weakening trend in propane and naphtha raw material prices had been eroding the cost support base for Chinese-manufactured propylene, but the sharp Middle East-linked feedstock spike temporarily reversed that trend even as underlying oversupply conditions persisted.

Propylene Prices in the United States

US prices collapsed 17.5% in Q1 2026 to USD 561.00/MT from USD 680.00/MT in Q4 2025, driven by significantly weaker demand from downstream derivative industries and a slowdown in regional industrial activity.

Why did the price of Propylene change in Q1 2026 in the United States?

The observed decrease in prices was driven by significantly weaker demand from the polypropylene, propylene oxide, and acrylonitrile production industries, reflecting a general softening in market conditions, while excess output from increased propane dehydrogenation and refinery-grade propylene clearly exerted further pressure on supply.

Quarterly Propylene Price Trends

Global Propylene prices declined steadily through most of 2025 as chronic North American oversupply and Asian capacity additions weighed on the broader market even as the Middle East bucked the trend, before a sharp but short-lived Q1 2026 spike, driven by naphtha-exposed regions reacting to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, partially reversed the prior year's decline before easing again in Q2.

What was Propylene Price in 2025?

Propylene told a sharply divergent story across 2025. The Middle East surged as regional demand and export competitiveness strengthened, while North America suffered the steepest decline of any region tracked in this report on chronic propane dehydrogenation oversupply, and China and Germany saw more moderate declines tracking the broader global softening.

Propylene Prices in Germany in 2025

German prices fell from about USD 950.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 860.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 9.5%, before the sharp Q1 2026 Hormuz-driven spike more than reversed the decline.

Propylene Prices in Saudi Arabia in 2025

Saudi Arabian prices surged from about USD 700.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 841.00/MT by Q4, up roughly 20.1%, the strongest annual gain of the four regions as regional demand and export competitiveness strengthened throughout the year.

Propylene Prices in China in 2025

Chinese prices fell from about USD 780.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 720.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 7.7%, as ongoing capacity additions kept this market on a gradual downward path for most of the year.

Propylene Prices in the United States in 2025

US prices fell from about USD 900.00/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 680.00/MT by Q4, down roughly 24.4%, the steepest annual decline of the four regions, as chronic propane dehydrogenation oversupply weighed on this market throughout the year.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Propylene Price Intelligence

Expert Market Research tracks Propylene prices continuously across every major producing and consuming region, combining naphtha and propane feedstock cost data, propane dehydrogenation capacity trends, and refinery and steam cracker utilization signals into a single, regularly updated view of the market. Our team can help your procurement function benchmark current offers, plan purchases around the wide regional divergence covered in this report, and build a defensible view of where this foundational petrochemical building block is headed next. Reach out to our team for a tailored briefing or a deeper look at any of the regional markets covered here.