RBD Palm Oil Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

RBD palm oil is crude palm oil that has been refined, bleached and deodorized, and its liquid fraction is sold as RBD palm olein. It is the most traded vegetable oil, used in cooking, frying, margarine, snack foods, soap and oleochemicals. Indonesia and Malaysia produce most of it, and India, China, the EU and Pakistan are the main importers.

Prices rose through 2026 and then slipped. Crude palm futures opened the year near USD 979 per tonne, reached a near two-year high of USD 1,240 in mid-September and fell about 10 percent to USD 1,110 by 4 October, a 12-week low.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in October 2026

RBD palm oil was about USD 1,180 per tonne FOB Malaysia and RBD palm olein USD 1,185 on 21 September, before futures fell a further USD 50 to 70. Indonesia set its October crude palm reference price at USD 1,042.15 per tonne, up 3.44 percent on September. Four drivers apply.

• Malaysian stocks: MPOB data of 10 September showed August stocks up 7.48 percent to 2.82 million tonnes, crude palm stocks up 15.2 percent and exports down 7.5 percent.
• India demand: After India cut duty on crude palm oil from 10 to 5 percent on 24 September, its September palm imports rose 3.5 percent to 810,000 tonnes, a seven month high.
• Indonesian biodiesel: Indonesia launched its mandatory B50 biodiesel programme in July, which the Malaysian Palm Oil Council says could absorb about 18 million tonnes of crude palm oil a year, over 35 percent of Indonesian output.
• El Nino: The council cited a 97 percent chance of a strong El Nino in October to December and expects Malaysian output to fall 2 to 4 percent from the fourth quarter, with 2027 output down 0.7 million tonnes in Malaysia and 1.9 million in Indonesia.

Supplier news: SD Guthrie reported on 11 August that first half fresh fruit bunch output fell 2 percent to 4.2 million tonnes and upstream profit fell 18 percent, KLK flagged on 27 August slightly lower FY27 fruit bunch output on El Nino, and Wilmar reported 6 percent lower fruit bunch output of 1.92 million tonnes and a 32 percent fall in plantation profit. Short term, high stocks cap prices; long term, B50 and El Nino support them.

RBD Palm Oil Price Forecast for 2026

Expect continued firming through H2 2026 across all four markets as Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate tightens export availability. Indonesia should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its larger production base relative to Malaysia. India's import-driven premium should persist given the country's near-total reliance on imported material and its own import duty structure. El Nino-related weather risk to Malaysian and Indonesian production remains the key variable to watch for the remainder of 2026.

On balance, the first half of 2026 brought a 4.6% increase average move across the 4 markets covered here, a trend that should persist through year end absent a material change in the underlying drivers.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

RBD Palm Oil Prices Q2 2026:

• Malaysia: USD 1,198/MT
• Indonesia: USD 1,124/MT
• China: USD 1,242/MT
• India: USD 1,380/MT

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia

In Q2 2026, Malaysia priced at USD 1,198/MT, up 4.4% from USD 1,147/MT the previous quarter, putting it the 3rd most expensive of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in Malaysia?

Firm export demand and accelerated shipments ahead of a scheduled export levy increase supported a strong quarter, with Malaysia now sitting about 3.1% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Malaysia has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia

Indonesia reached USD 1,124/MT in Q2 2026, stronger export inquiries and tightening inventory availability, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in Indonesia?

Stronger export inquiries and tightening inventory availability, partly reflecting biodiesel blending requirements, supported a firm increase, which puts Indonesia roughly 9.1% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 1.7% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Indonesia's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in China

China rose 5.1% to USD 1,242/MT in Q2 2026, improving demand sentiment and cautious restocking ahead of anticipated supply tightening reversed the softness seen earlier in the year, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in China?

Improving demand sentiment and cautious restocking ahead of anticipated supply tightening reversed the softness seen earlier in the year, working out to China trading about 0.5% above this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 2.1% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in India

USD 1,380/MT. That is where India landed in Q2 2026, up 5.3% from USD 1,310/MT in Q1 2026, placing it the priciest across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q2 2026 in India?

Tightening supply expectations ahead of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate rollout, combined with currency movements, supported firmer import pricing, leaving India running roughly 11.7% above the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is faster than the 2.2% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

RBD Palm Oil Prices Q1 2026:

• Malaysia: USD 1,147/MT
• Indonesia: USD 1,088/MT
• China: USD 1,182/MT
• India: USD 1,310/MT

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia

In Q1 2026, Malaysia priced at USD 1,147/MT, up 1.4% from USD 1,131/MT the previous quarter, putting it the 3rd most expensive of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in Malaysia?

Ample supply from favourable harvesting conditions met moderated export demand, keeping pricing under pressure early in the year, with Malaysia now sitting about 2.9% below the 4-region average this quarter.

Malaysia has averaged 2.0% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia

Indonesia reached USD 1,088/MT in Q1 2026, strong production levels and sufficient supply conditions kept pricing soft through the first quarter, making it the most affordable of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in Indonesia?

Strong production levels and sufficient supply conditions kept pricing soft through the first quarter, which puts Indonesia roughly 7.9% below the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 1.7% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Indonesia's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in China

China rose 1.4% to USD 1,182/MT in Q1 2026, progressive weakness through the quarter tracked the broader soft Southeast Asian supply picture, ranking it the 2nd most expensive among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in China?

Progressive weakness through the quarter tracked the broader soft Southeast Asian supply picture, working out to China trading about 0.0% above this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against China's own average pace of 2.1% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in India

USD 1,310/MT. That is where India landed in Q1 2026, up 1.4% from USD 1,292/MT in Q4 2025, placing it the priciest across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of RBD Palm Oil change in Q1 2026 in India?

Import pricing softened alongside the broader Asian market before the sharper Q2 reversal, leaving India running roughly 10.9% above the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is slower than the 2.2% average quarterly move India has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Quarterly RBD Palm Oil Price Trends

The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 1,119/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,236 by Q2 2026, a gain of 10.5% over six quarters.

What was RBD Palm Oil Price in 2025?

The global RBD palm oil average moved steadily through 2025, opening near USD 1,119/MT in Q1 and closing the year at USD 1,166, a 4.2% increase.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Malaysia in 2025

Malaysia prices moved from about USD 1,085/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,131 by Q4, up roughly 4.3%. That left Malaysia ranked 3 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in Indonesia in 2025

Indonesia prices moved from about USD 1,032/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,074 by Q4, up roughly 4.0%, placing Indonesia 4 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in China in 2025

China prices moved from about USD 1,118/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,166 by Q4, up roughly 4.3%. China closed the year ranked 2 of the 4 markets this report tracks.

RBD Palm Oil Prices in India in 2025

India prices moved from about USD 1,240/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 1,292 by Q4, up roughly 4.2%, leaving India in 1 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.

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We monitor RBD palm oil markets across every region with meaningful production or consumption, connecting the price you see to the crude palm oil costs and demand conditions behind it. The result is a regularly updated view built from the ground up rather than a single static figure.

Our forecasts combine production capacity data with feedstock cost trends and regional demand signals, giving sourcing teams a defensible basis for budgeting and supplier negotiations beyond a single point estimate.

Get in touch with our analysts if you need a more detailed regional view, historical pricing beyond the six quarters shown here, or a sourcing analysis built specifically around your procurement footprint.

We track RBD palm oil pricing as distinct from the further-fractionated palm olein and palm stearin products this pipeline also covers, since fractionation costs and each product's own demand pattern can shift the three apart.