Refined Olive Oil Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Refined olive oil is made by refining lampante, the lowest grade of virgin oil that is unfit for direct consumption, through neutralizing, bleaching and deodorizing, and is usually blended with virgin oil for sale as olive oil. Spain, Italy, Greece, Tunisia and Portugal are the main producers. The International Olive Council puts 2025/26 world production at about 3.44 million tonnes, down 4 percent, against consumption of about 3.25 million, up 1 percent.

Prices fell through 2026. Spanish extra virgin averaged USD 4,930 per tonne from October 2025 to May 2026, USD 3,850 to 3,950 in July, and moved from USD 3,760 on 7 September to USD 3,570 on 5 October (Infaoliva), with lampante, the refining feedstock, at USD 3,350.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in October 2026

On 5 October lampante was USD 3,350 per tonne at Infaoliva and USD 3,570 at the Andalusian regional board, with Spanish extra virgin at USD 4,000 on the Poolred benchmark for 26 September to 2 October. Four drivers apply.

• Spanish harvest: The ministry's 1 October forecast for 2026/27 is 1,602,596 tonnes, up 23 percent, with Andalucia at 1,261,200 tonnes, though it warns that summer heat may adjust the figures.
• Stocks: At 30 June, Spanish stocks were 683,345 tonnes, with 82.4 percent of the 2025/26 crop of 1,298,503 tonnes already sold, and farm cooperatives reported farm-gate prices below production cost in places.
• Tunisian imports: Tunisia exported 368,000 tonnes from November to July, up 55.3 percent, and Castilla-La Mancha cooperatives asked on 17 September for curbs on Tunisian oil imported under inward processing.
• US tariffs: The US kept a 10 percent tariff on EU olive oil with no end date after a temporary tariff expired on 24 July, while Tunisia faces no additional duty.

Supplier news: Deoleo, owner of Carbonell, Bertolli and Carapelli, is being sold, with Coricelli offering USD 561 million, Dcoop USD 528 million and Acesur USD 516 million on 21 August. By 5 October the sale had stalled, with the government reportedly weighing a foreign investment shield. Short term, prices stay soft on a large Spanish crop; long term, the November to December IOC estimates are the next checkpoint.

Refined Olive Oil Price Forecast for 2026

Expect steady gains across all four markets through H2 2026 as global demand for olive oil as a premium cooking oil continues its structural growth. Tunisia should retain its position as the most competitively priced origin given its lower production costs relative to the three European producers. Italy's premium should persist given its position as a net importer of crude oil for domestic refining and blending. Spanish weather conditions through the upcoming harvest season remain the single most important variable to watch, given the country's outsized role in global supply.

Across all 4 regions combined, prices moved 4.5% increase on average between Q1 and Q2 2026. Absent a meaningful change to the cost or demand drivers outlined above, that pace looks set to carry into the second half of the year.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Refined Olive Oil Prices Q2 2026:

• Spain: USD 6.48/KG
• Italy: USD 7.58/KG
• Greece: USD 6.85/KG
• Tunisia: USD 5.64/KG

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Spain

Spain rose 4.5% to USD 6.48/KG in Q2 2026, steady refining activity met firm export demand, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Spain?

Steady refining activity met firm export demand, supporting a modest increase, leaving Spain running roughly 2.4% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is faster than the 2.1% average quarterly move Spain has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Italy

USD 7.58/KG. That is where Italy landed in Q2 2026, up 4.6% from USD 7.25/KG in Q1 2026, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Italy?

Strong domestic blending and refining demand kept Italy at the top of this group, with Italy now sitting about 14.2% above the 4-region average this quarter.

Italy has averaged 2.1% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in faster than that longer-run pace.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Greece

Greece's price gained 4.4% to USD 6.85/KG, consistent export demand to European and international buyers supported a firm quarter, making it the 2nd most expensive of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Greece?

Consistent export demand to European and international buyers supported a firm quarter, which puts Greece roughly 3.2% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.0% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Greece's move this quarter landed faster than that trend.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Tunisia

In Q2 2026, Tunisia priced at USD 5.64/KG, up 4.4% from USD 5.40/KG the previous quarter, ranking it the most affordable among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q2 2026 in Tunisia?

Growing export volumes to European blenders kept Tunisian pricing the most competitive of the four markets even as it rose in step with the group, working out to Tunisia trading about 15.0% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against Tunisia's own average pace of 2.0% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in faster than that pace.

For the Quarter Ending March 2026

Refined Olive Oil Prices Q1 2026:

• Spain: USD 6.20/KG
• Italy: USD 7.25/KG
• Greece: USD 6.56/KG
• Tunisia: USD 5.40/KG

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Spain

Spain rose 1.5% to USD 6.20/KG in Q1 2026, early-year refining activity supported a firm start to 2026, placing it the 3rd most expensive across the 4 regions covered in this report.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Spain?

Early-year refining activity supported a firm start to 2026, leaving Spain running roughly 2.4% below the 4-region average for the quarter.

That is slower than the 2.1% average quarterly move Spain has posted across the six quarters this report tracks.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Italy

USD 7.25/KG. That is where Italy landed in Q1 2026, up 1.4% from USD 7.15/KG in Q4 2025, putting it the priciest of the 4 markets tracked this quarter.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Italy?

Steady import demand for blending stock carried prices higher as the new year began, with Italy now sitting about 14.1% above the 4-region average this quarter.

Italy has averaged 2.1% a quarter over the six quarters this report tracks; this move came in slower than that longer-run pace.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Greece

Greece's price gained 1.4% to USD 6.56/KG, consistent export demand supported a modest early-year gain, making it the 2nd most expensive of the 4 markets tracked here this quarter.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Greece?

Consistent export demand supported a modest early-year gain, which puts Greece roughly 3.3% above the average across the 4 regions this report tracks.

Set against a 2.0% average quarterly pace over the six quarters this report tracks, Greece's move this quarter landed slower than that trend.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Tunisia

In Q1 2026, Tunisia priced at USD 5.40/KG, up 1.4% from USD 5.32/KG the previous quarter, ranking it the most affordable among the 4 markets this report follows.

Why did the price of Refined Olive Oil change in Q1 2026 in Tunisia?

Growing export volumes supported a firm start to 2026, working out to Tunisia trading about 15.0% below this quarter's 4-region average.

Measured against Tunisia's own average pace of 2.0% a quarter across the six quarters this report tracks, this move came in slower than that pace.

Quarterly Refined Olive Oil Price Trends

The global average climbed steadily across the window, from USD 6.00/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 6.64 by Q2 2026, a gain of 10.6% over six quarters.

What was Refined Olive Oil Price in 2025?

2025 was a steadily firming year for refined olive oil. Starting near USD 6.00/KG in Q1, the global average finished the year at USD 6.26, a 4.4% increase across the four quarters.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Spain in 2025

Spain prices moved from about USD 5.85/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 6.11 by Q4, up roughly 4.5%, leaving Spain in 3 place among the 4 tracked markets heading into the new year.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Italy in 2025

Italy prices moved from about USD 6.85/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 7.15 by Q4, up roughly 4.3%. That left Italy ranked 1 of 4 tracked markets heading into 2026.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Greece in 2025

Greece prices moved from about USD 6.20/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 6.47 by Q4, up roughly 4.3%, placing Greece 2 of 4 tracked markets as 2025 closed out.

Refined Olive Oil Prices in Tunisia in 2025

Tunisia prices moved from about USD 5.10/KG in Q1 2025 to USD 5.32 by Q4, up roughly 4.4%. Tunisia closed the year ranked 4 of the 4 markets this report tracks.

How We Can Help

Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Refined Olive Oil Price Intelligence

We keep a continuous watch on refined olive oil prices across every region that produces or consumes it at scale, tracing the raw material and demand drivers back to their source rather than just reporting the number. Our team pulls together crude/lampante olive oil (olives) cost trends, regional supply and demand shifts, and policy developments into a single, regularly refreshed view of the market.

We build our forecasts from production capacity, feedstock cost trends, and regional demand data, aiming to give procurement teams something they can actually use in budgeting and supplier negotiations, not just a headline number.

If you need a deeper regional breakdown, a longer historical run than the six quarters shown here, or a sourcing analysis built around your specific procurement footprint, our analysts are available to help.

We track refined olive oil pricing as distinct from the virgin and extra-virgin grades that command a substantial premium in this market, since refined oil serves a different, more cost-sensitive segment of food service and manufacturing demand.