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EUA Futures Prices, Demand and Supply Overview
Germany paid the most for EUA futures in Q3 2026: USD 94.8/tCO2, up 8.5% from USD 87.4/tCO2 in Q2. Prices there follow the deepest trading hub, where hedging demand is strongest. Worldwide, the average rose 7.7% to USD 89.6/tCO2 from USD 83.2/tCO2, mostly because gas prices rose and the market reserve began to absorb allowances. What about Q4 2026? We expect a global average somewhere in the USD 85.6-98.5/tCO2 range, with gas prices, allowance supply and fund positioning doing most of the work.
EU Allowance, or EUA, futures are contracts for allowances issued under the EU Emissions Trading System, in which one allowance covers one tonne of carbon dioxide. Power producers, factories and airlines buy them to cover their emissions, and investment funds trade them for price exposure. This report tracks the benchmark December contract and spot auction prices, quoted in US dollars per tonne of carbon dioxide. Regions here are the main trading and auction hubs plus the separate UK allowance market, which moves with but remains distinct from the EU price.
Supply is set by the annual cap, free allocation and auction volumes, and the market stability reserve, which absorbs about 190 million allowances between September 2026 and August 2027. Auction clearing prices averaged about EUR 82 per tonne in the third quarter, up from about EUR 75 in the second. The December 2026 contract traded between roughly EUR 79 and EUR 86 through August and September and slipped to about EUR 82 in early October after the 30 September compliance deadline passed.
EUA Futures Price Forecast for 2026
Prices should rise through the rest of 2026. A tighter reserve and firm gas prices support the market. Year on year, the global average has moved from USD 79.8/tCO2 to USD 89.6/tCO2, an increase of 12.3%.
For Q4, the risks are weighted toward higher prices. What could push prices higher? Higher gas prices, a tighter market reserve or renewed buying by funds would lift prices. What could pull them lower? A softer policy review, falling gas prices or fund selling would lower prices.
| Region | 2026 Price Range (USD/tCO2) | Outlook |
| Global Average | 85.6 - 98.5 | Tight supply supports prices |
| European Union | 90.7 - 104.3 | Tighter supply supports prices |
| Germany | 90.8 - 104.4 | Utility hedging supports prices |
| Poland | 90.3 - 103.9 | Coal power keeps demand firm |
| United Kingdom | 70.7 - 81.3 | Link talks keep prices in focus |
For the Quarter Ending September 2026
EUA Futures Prices Q3 2026:
- European Union: USD 94.7/tCO2
- Germany: USD 94.8/tCO2
- Poland: USD 94.3/tCO2
- United Kingdom: USD 74.5/tCO2
EUA Futures Prices in European Union
In Q3 2026, the average price in European Union firmed 8.5% to USD 94.7/tCO2, compared with USD 87.3/tCO2 in Q2. Prices rose as gas prices climbed and the market reserve began to absorb allowances. Compared with Q3 2025, when European Union averaged USD 84.2/tCO2, the current price is 12.5% higher. The gap to the four-market average of USD 89.6/tCO2 was 5.7% above for European Union.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q3 2026 in European Union?
European Union rose. Gas prices climbed and the market reserve began to absorb allowances. Buyers kept orders close to immediate needs. At USD 94.7/tCO2, European Union is 2.0% higher than in Q4 2025, when the average was USD 92.8/tCO2, and the global average is 2.4% higher over the same period.
EUA Futures Prices in Germany
Germany's average gained 8.5% in Q3 2026, to USD 94.8/tCO2 from USD 87.4/tCO2 in Q2. Prices rose as power utilities bought allowances to hedge generation. The current level is 12.5% above the Q3 2025 average of USD 84.3/tCO2. Against the four-market average of USD 89.6/tCO2, Germany stood 5.8% above in the quarter.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q3 2026 in Germany?
Germany rose. Power utilities bought allowances to hedge generation. Traders checked stock levels before committing to larger volumes. Since Q4 2025 the price in Germany has gone up 2.0%, from USD 92.9/tCO2 to USD 94.8/tCO2, while the global average has gone up 2.4%.
EUA Futures Prices in Poland
Prices in Poland rose 8.5% in Q3 2026 to USD 94.3/tCO2, against USD 86.9/tCO2 in Q2. Prices rose as coal-based generators needed allowances for compliance. Compared with Q3 2025, when Poland averaged USD 83.9/tCO2, the current price is 12.4% higher. The gap to the four-market average of USD 89.6/tCO2 was 5.2% above for Poland.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q3 2026 in Poland?
Poland rose. Coal-based generators needed allowances for compliance. Offers were reviewed weekly as contract talks went on. Compared with the Q4 2025 average of USD 92.4/tCO2, the price in Poland has changed by +2.1%, against +2.4% for the global average.
EUA Futures Prices in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom recorded a 4.9% gain in Q3 2026, with the average rising to USD 74.5/tCO2 from USD 71.0/tCO2 in Q2. Prices rose as hopes for a link between the UK and EU carbon markets. The current level is 11.2% above the Q3 2025 average of USD 67.0/tCO2. Against the four-market average of USD 89.6/tCO2, the United Kingdom stood 16.9% below in the quarter.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q3 2026 in United Kingdom?
The United Kingdom rose. Hopes for a link between the UK and EU carbon markets. Most deals were settled on short notice. At USD 74.5/tCO2, the United Kingdom is 3.5% higher than in Q4 2025, when the average was USD 72.0/tCO2, and the global average is 2.4% higher over the same period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2026
EUA Futures Prices Q2 2026:
- European Union: USD 87.3/tCO2
- Germany: USD 87.4/tCO2
- Poland: USD 86.9/tCO2
- United Kingdom: USD 71.0/tCO2
EUA Futures Prices in European Union
Prices in European Union eased 1.0% in Q2 2026 to USD 87.3/tCO2, against USD 88.2/tCO2 in Q1. Prices slipped as the compliance deadline ended hedging demand. Compared with Q2 2025, when European Union averaged USD 78.0/tCO2, the current price is 11.9% higher. The gap to the four-market average of USD 83.2/tCO2 was 4.9% above for European Union.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q2 2026 in European Union?
European Union slipped. The compliance deadline ended hedging demand. Order sizes stayed modest through the quarter. Q1 had brought a 5.0% decline, and by the end of Q2 the price was 11.9% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 78.0/tCO2. Q3 then reversed the move, taking the price to USD 94.7/tCO2.
EUA Futures Prices in Germany
Germany recorded a 1.0% decrease in Q2 2026, with the average falling to USD 87.4/tCO2 from USD 88.3/tCO2 in Q1. Prices slipped as funds trimmed positions. The current level is 11.9% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 78.1/tCO2. Against the four-market average of USD 83.2/tCO2, Germany stood 5.0% above in the quarter.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q2 2026 in Germany?
Germany slipped. Funds trimmed positions. Contract talks were mostly settled before the quarter began. After -5.0% in Q1, the quarter closed 11.9% above its year-earlier level of USD 78.1/tCO2, and in Q3 the move was reversed, to USD 94.8/tCO2.
EUA Futures Prices in Poland
In Q2 2026, the average price in Poland slipped 1.0% to USD 86.9/tCO2, compared with USD 87.8/tCO2 in Q1. Prices slipped as the compliance deadline ended hedging demand. Compared with Q2 2025, when Poland averaged USD 77.6/tCO2, the current price is 12.0% higher. The gap to the four-market average of USD 83.2/tCO2 was 4.4% above for Poland.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q2 2026 in Poland?
Poland slipped. The compliance deadline ended hedging demand. Sellers adjusted offers in small steps. Year on year the price is 12.0% higher than the USD 77.6/tCO2 of Q2 2025, following -5.0% in Q1. Q3 reversed the move, with the price at USD 94.3/tCO2.
EUA Futures Prices in United Kingdom
The United Kingdom's average fell 9.0% in Q2 2026, to USD 71.0/tCO2 from USD 78.0/tCO2 in Q1. Prices fell as funds trimmed positions. The current level is 10.9% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 64.0/tCO2. Against the four-market average of USD 83.2/tCO2, the United Kingdom stood 14.7% below in the quarter.
Why did the price of EUA Futures change in Q2 2026 in United Kingdom?
The United Kingdom fell. Funds trimmed positions. Buyers worked through existing stock before placing new orders. Q1 had brought an 8.3% gain, and by the end of Q2 the price was 10.9% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 64.0/tCO2. Q3 then reversed the move, taking the price to USD 74.5/tCO2.
Quarterly EUA Futures Price Trends
EUA futures prices rose through 2025 and rose in 2026. The global average moved from USD 74.8/tCO2 in Q1 2025 to 74.4 in Q2, 79.8 in Q3, 87.5 in Q4, then 85.6 in Q1 2026, 83.2 in Q2 and 89.6 in Q3, a net gain of roughly 19.8% across the window. Gas prices, allowance supply and fund positioning set the direction.
| Quarter | Price (USD/tCO2) | QoQ Change | Direction |
| Q3 2026 | 89.6 | +7.7% | ↑ Rising |
| Q2 2026 | 83.2 | -2.8% | ↓ Falling |
| Q1 2026 | 85.6 | -2.2% | ↓ Falling |
| Q4 2025 | 87.5 | +9.6% | ↑ Rising |
| Q3 2025 | 79.8 | +7.3% | ↑ Rising |
| Q4 2026 | In Progress | - | - In Progress |
What was EUA Futures Price in 2025?
2025 was a year of steady gains for EUA futures. Starting near USD 74.8/tCO2 in Q1, the global average finished the year at 87.5 in Q4, a gain of about 17.0%. Gas prices, allowance supply and fund positioning set the direction.
EUA Futures Prices in European Union in 2025
In European Union, prices moved from about USD 78.8/tCO2 in Q1 2025 to USD 92.8/tCO2 by Q4, up roughly 17.8%. Prices fell in Q2, then rose in Q3 and Q4 as allowance supply expectations and fund positioning shifted through the year. Relative to the end of 2025, the price in European Union is 2.0% higher at USD 94.7/tCO2.
EUA Futures Prices in Germany in 2025
In Germany, prices moved from about USD 78.9/tCO2 in Q1 2025 to USD 92.9/tCO2 by Q4, up roughly 17.7%. Prices fell in Q2, then rose in Q3 and Q4 as allowance supply expectations and fund positioning shifted through the year. Since the 2025 close of USD 92.9/tCO2, the price in Germany has moved up 2.0%, reaching USD 94.8/tCO2 in Q3 2026.
EUA Futures Prices in Poland in 2025
In Poland, prices moved from about USD 78.5/tCO2 in Q1 2025 to USD 92.4/tCO2 by Q4, up roughly 17.7%. Prices fell in Q2, then rose in Q3 and Q4 as allowance supply expectations and fund positioning shifted through the year. Relative to the end of 2025, the price in Poland is 2.1% higher at USD 94.3/tCO2.
EUA Futures Prices in United Kingdom in 2025
In the United Kingdom, prices moved from about USD 63.0/tCO2 in Q1 2025 to USD 72.0/tCO2 by Q4, up roughly 14.3%. Prices rose in every quarter as allowance supply expectations and fund positioning shifted through the year. Since the 2025 close of USD 72.0/tCO2, the price in the United Kingdom has moved up 3.5%, reaching USD 74.5/tCO2 in Q3 2026.
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We follow EUA futures prices in the main producing and consuming countries, and trace each move back to gas prices, allowance supply, fund positioning and demand. Our forecasts draw on gas prices, allowance supply and fund positioning across all reporting regions, so subscribers see why a price moved and not just that it did. Need pricing data, bespoke market analysis, or procurement advisory? Reach out to our team.
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Frequently Asked Questions About This Report
Bought by power producers, factories and airlines to cover emissions, and traded by funds for price exposure.
In Q3 2026, it averaged USD 94.7/tCO2 in European Union, USD 94.8/tCO2 in Germany, USD 94.3/tCO2 in Poland and USD 74.5/tCO2 in the United Kingdom. Germany was the priciest market.
The global average went from USD 87.5/tCO2 in Q4 2025 to 85.6 in Q1, 83.2 in Q2 and 89.6 in Q3, up 2.4% overall. Prices fell in Q1, fell in Q2 and rose in Q3.
Higher gas prices, the market reserve absorbing allowances and renewed buying lifted the benchmark contract.
We expect a global average somewhere in the USD 85.6-98.5/tCO2 range. Gas prices and allowance supply point to a higher range.
Germany sits at the top and the United Kingdom at the bottom. Germany is dearest because of deep trading and hedging demand, while The United Kingdom is cheapest on a separate and smaller national market.
Monthly. Need something more current? The Expert Market Research team is available directly.
Gas prices, allowance supply, fund positioning and freight drive the volatility.
Allowances are issued across the EU and trade mainly through Germany, with Poland a large buyer.
Hedge in stages ahead of compliance dates and review the position when the policy review news changes.
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