Chicken Thigh Price Trend and Forecast 2026-2027

Japan paid the most for chicken thigh in Q3 2026: USD 3,250/MT, up 1.3% from USD 3,208/MT in Q2. Import duties, freight and cold chain costs and strict quality standards for chilled and cooked thigh meat keep Japanese prices above the other three markets. Worldwide, the average rose 1.3% to USD 2,812/MT from USD 2,775/MT, mostly because higher feed costs and stronger export and restaurant demand led processors and importers to raise prices in all four markets. What about Q4 2026? We expect a global average somewhere in the USD 2,740-2,965/MT range, with feed costs, outbreaks of avian influenza, export demand and demand from restaurants and convenience stores doing most of the work.

Chicken thigh is the dark meat cut from the upper part of the leg of broiler chickens, sold bone-in or boneless, with or without skin, fresh or frozen. It is popular in grilled, fried and cooked dishes and in Asian cuisine because of its flavor and texture. Prices in this report refer to frozen boneless thigh meat in international trade and are quoted per metric ton. They depend on feed costs, labor costs, trade rules and demand from restaurants and processors.

Production is concentrated in Brazil, Thailand, China, the United States and Poland, where integrated companies cut and debone carcasses. Brazil and Thailand are the largest exporters of boneless thigh meat to Japan, the Middle East and the European Union. Feed makes up the largest part of the cost, and outbreaks of avian influenza can close export markets quickly. Prices vary by cut, trim, packaging and whether the product is raw or cooked.

Chicken Thigh Price Forecast for 2026

Prices should rise modestly through the rest of 2026. Feed costs stay firm, demand from restaurants and convenience stores is steady and holiday season orders add support. Larger flocks in Brazil limit the size of the increase. A year ago the global average was USD 2,698/MT, and the latest quarter, at USD 2,812/MT, is 4.2% higher.

Risks to the Q4 outlook lean in both directions, with no clear bias. What could push prices higher? Outbreaks of avian influenza, higher feed costs or stronger demand from restaurants would lift prices. What could pull them lower? Larger flocks, lower feed costs or weaker demand from restaurants would lower prices.

For the Quarter Ending September 2026

Chicken Thigh Prices Q3 2026:

• Brazil: USD 2,450/MT
• Thailand: USD 2,700/MT
• China: USD 2,850/MT
• Japan: USD 3,250/MT

Chicken Thigh Prices in Brazil

Prices in Brazil firmed 1.5% in Q3 2026 to USD 2,450/MT, compared with USD 2,414/MT in Q2. Brazilian prices rose as export demand from Japan and the Middle East improved. Against the USD 2,338/MT recorded in Q3 2025, the current average represents a 4.8% increase. Brazil ended the quarter 12.9% below the group average of USD 2,812/MT.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q3 2026 in Brazil?

Brazil rose. Export demand from Japan and the Middle East improved, feed costs increased, and processors raised offers. Since the end of 2025, the price in Brazil has risen 3.6%, from USD 2,366/MT to USD 2,450/MT, while the global average has risen 3.2%. The global average shifted 1.3% higher in the same quarter.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Thailand

Thailand recorded a 1.4% gain in Q3 2026, with the average reaching USD 2,700/MT against USD 2,663/MT in Q2. Thai prices rose as export demand for boneless thigh meat improved. The Q3 2025 average of USD 2,590/MT puts the current price 4.2% above its level a year earlier. The price in Thailand was 4.0% below the group average of USD 2,812/MT in Q3 2026.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q3 2026 in Thailand?

Thailand rose. Export demand for boneless thigh meat improved, feed and labor costs increased, and processors raised offers. The cumulative 2026 change for Thailand is a 3.3% increase, from USD 2,615/MT to USD 2,700/MT, while the global average shows a 3.2% gain over the same period. Across the four markets the average was 1.3% higher on the quarter.

Chicken Thigh Prices in China

The Q3 2026 average for China stood at USD 2,850/MT, an increase of 1.2% on the USD 2,816/MT recorded in Q2. Chinese prices rose as the demand from restaurants and processors improved. Year on year, the average is 3.8% higher, against USD 2,745/MT in Q3 2025. The gap to the four-market average of USD 2,812/MT was 1.4% above for China.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q3 2026 in China?

China rose. Demand from restaurants and processors improved, import costs increased, and traders raised prices. At USD 2,850/MT, China is 2.8% higher than in Q4 2025, when the average was USD 2,772/MT, and the global average is 3.2% higher over the same period. On the global measure the average was 1.3% higher over the quarter.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Japan

Japan registered a 1.3% increase in Q3 2026, taking the average to USD 3,250/MT from USD 3,208/MT in Q2. Japanese prices rose as the demand from restaurants and convenience stores improved. The current level is 4.1% above the Q3 2025 average of USD 3,121/MT. Relative to the four-market average of USD 2,812/MT, Japan traded 15.6% above in Q3 2026.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q3 2026 in Japan?

Japan rose. Demand from restaurants and convenience stores improved, import costs increased, and importers raised prices. This leaves Japan 3.1% higher than at the end of 2025, when the average was USD 3,151/MT, while the global average is 3.2% higher over the same period. For comparison, the global average moved 1.3% higher over the same quarter.

For the Quarter Ending June 2026

Chicken Thigh Prices Q2 2026:

• Brazil: USD 2,414/MT
• Thailand: USD 2,663/MT
• China: USD 2,816/MT
• Japan: USD 3,208/MT

Chicken Thigh Prices in Brazil

Brazil registered a 1.1% increase in Q2 2026, taking the average to USD 2,414/MT from USD 2,388/MT in Q1. Brazilian prices rose as export demand improved. The Q2 2026 average is 5.3% above the USD 2,293/MT recorded in Q2 2025. Brazil finished Q2 2026 13.0% below the four-market average of USD 2,775/MT.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q2 2026 in Brazil?

Brazil rose. Export demand improved, feed costs increased, and processors raised offers. This followed a 0.9% gain in Q1 and left Brazil 5.3% above its Q2 2025 average of USD 2,293/MT. The move then extended in Q3, taking the price to USD 2,450/MT. For comparison, the global average moved 1.0% higher over the same quarter.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Thailand

Thailand climbed 1.0% to USD 2,663/MT in Q2 2026, from USD 2,636/MT in Q1. Thai prices rose as export demand improved. Compared with Q2 2025, when Thailand averaged USD 2,550/MT, the current price is 4.4% higher. The four markets averaged USD 2,775/MT in the quarter, so the price in Thailand was 4.0% lower.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q2 2026 in Thailand?

Thailand rose. Export demand improved, feed costs increased, and processors raised offers. After a 0.8% gain in Q1, the quarter closed 4.4% above the USD 2,550/MT recorded in Q2 2025. The same direction continued in Q3, with the price reaching USD 2,700/MT. The global average shifted 1.0% higher in the same quarter.

Chicken Thigh Prices in China

In Q2 2026, the average price in China rose 0.9% to USD 2,816/MT, compared with USD 2,791/MT in Q1. Chinese prices rose as the demand from restaurants improved. Measured against Q2 2025, when the average stood at USD 2,702/MT, the market is 4.2% higher. In comparison with the average of USD 2,775/MT across the four markets, the price in China was 1.5% higher.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q2 2026 in China?

China rose. Demand from restaurants improved, import costs increased, and traders raised prices. This came on top of a 0.7% gain in Q1, and the average ended 4.2% above its level of a year earlier, when it stood at USD 2,702/MT. Q3 added to the change, with the price at USD 2,850/MT.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Japan

Japan's average moved up 1.0% in Q2 2026, to USD 3,208/MT from USD 3,177/MT in Q1. Japanese prices rose as the demand from restaurants improved. In Q2 2025 the average was USD 3,073/MT, so the market is 4.4% higher on a yearly basis. Japan ended the quarter 15.6% above the group average of USD 2,775/MT.

Why did the price of Chicken Thigh change in Q2 2026 in Japan?

Japan rose. Demand from restaurants improved, import costs increased, and importers raised prices. Q1 had brought a 0.8% gain, and by the end of Q2 the price was 4.4% above the Q2 2025 average of USD 3,073/MT. The move then extended in Q3, taking the price to USD 3,250/MT. On the global measure the average was 1.0% higher over the quarter.

Quarterly Chicken Thigh Price Trends

Chicken Thigh prices rose through 2025 and the first half of 2026 and rose again in the third quarter in all four markets. The global average moved from USD 2,616/MT in Q1 2025 to 2,654 in Q2, 2,698 in Q3 and 2,726 in Q4, then 2,748 in Q1 2026, 2,775 in Q2 and 2,812 in Q3, a net gain of roughly 7.5% across the window. Higher feed and labor costs and steady demand from restaurants and processors lifted prices for six quarters.

What was Chicken Thigh Price in 2025?

2025 was a year of gradual increases for chicken thigh, with prices rising in each quarter in all four markets. Starting near USD 2,616/MT in Q1, the global average finished the year at 2,726 in Q4, a gain of about 4.2%. Higher feed and labor costs and steady demand from restaurants supported processors throughout the year.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Brazil in 2025

In Brazil, prices moved from about USD 2,254/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,366/MT by Q4, up roughly 5.0%. Brazilian prices rose gradually as feed costs and export demand increased. At USD 2,450/MT in Q3 2026, Brazil stands 3.6% above its Q4 2025 close. The same regional pattern is carried into the quarterly analysis above, where the quarter-by-quarter figures can be traced.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Thailand in 2025

In Thailand, prices moved from about USD 2,515/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,615/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.0%. Thai prices rose gradually as feed and labor costs and export demand increased. The Q4 2025 close of USD 2,615/MT compares with USD 2,700/MT in Q3 2026, a 3.3% increase. The quarterly sections above show how the annual average developed over the year.

Chicken Thigh Prices in China in 2025

In China, prices moved from about USD 2,665/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 2,772/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.0%. Chinese prices rose gradually as import costs and restaurant demand increased. Relative to the end of 2025, the price in China is 2.8% higher at USD 2,850/MT. The quarterly breakdown above allows each stage of that path to be traced.

Chicken Thigh Prices in Japan in 2025

In Japan, prices moved from about USD 3,030/MT in Q1 2025 to USD 3,151/MT by Q4, up roughly 4.0%. Japanese prices rose gradually as import costs and restaurant demand increased. By Q3 2026 the average for Japan had reached USD 3,250/MT, 3.1% above the Q4 2025 close. The same regional pattern is carried into the quarterly analysis above, where the quarter-by-quarter figures can be traced.

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Expert Market Research: Your Source for Real-Time Chicken Thigh Price Intelligence

We keep a continuous eye on chicken thigh prices wherever it is produced or consumed at scale, tracing causation through feed costs, disease outbreaks, labor costs, trade rules, cut type and demand from restaurants and processors. Our forecasts draw on production data, trade flows, input cost trends and demand indicators across all reporting regions, so subscribers see why a price moved and not just that it did. Need pricing data, bespoke market analysis, or procurement advisory? Reach out to our team.